Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The first week of the playoffs in most fantasy football leagues also brought us maybe the weirdest weekend of the NFL season. We had three games rescheduled, the worst team in the league (the Lions) upset one of the best (the Cardinals) in a game that wasn’t close, and maybe the best offense in the league (the Buccaneers) was shut out in prime time.
All the weird situations, including a limited player pool because of the reschedulings, made for a very strange DFS weekend as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers on this slate and break down some of the winning tournament lineups across the industry.
Winners
Value Wide Receivers
There were plenty of spots to look for value in Week 15, but wide receiver was one of the best. There were a number of underpriced receivers in great spots, and they came through in flying colors.
DeVante Parker was priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, but he figured to see a sizable boost in value with Jaylen Waddle out of the lineup. He ultimately finished with a team-high eight targets, which he turned into eight catches for 68 yards. He also scored the game-winning touchdown – the Dolphins’ sixth win in a row – and finished with 16.8 DraftKings points.
Gabriel Davis was even cheaper at $3,700, and he operated as one of Josh Allen’s top targets with Emmanuel Sanders out of the lineup. Davis made the most of his opportunity, finishing with two touchdowns and 25.5 DraftKings points.
Finally, Christian Kirk also seemed underpriced with DeAndre Hopkins out of the lineup, and he also racked up a touchdown.
Ultimately, Davis finished with the second-most fantasy points at the position this week, while Kirk ranked third. That ended up being tons of production for their salary, so spending down at receiver was clearly the right decision.
Tyler Huntley and Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
The two highest-scoring players Sunday both happened to play for the same team.
It’s not uncommon to see a Ravens’ quarterback at the top of the leaderboard, but it wasn’t Lamar Jackson this week. Tyler Huntley made a spot start for the injured quarterback, and he did not disappoint against the Packers. He racked up 215 passing yards and two touchdowns and added 73 rushing yards and two rushing scores. Huntley finished with 35.9 DraftKings points, and no other quarterback had more than 24.34. That’s a massive gap, especially since Huntley only cost $5,400.
Even though Huntley’s passing production wasn’t elite, it was highly concentrated around one player. Mark Andrews turned in his second straight dominant performance, finishing with 10 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns. His 38.6 DraftKings points was the top mark on the slate.
This stack was also pretty uncommon in tournaments. Only 0.9% of lineups had both Huntley and Andrews in the DraftKings’ Milly Maker, but 26.4% of the teams in the top one percent of the standings utilized that stack.
Duke Johnson, Miami Dolphins
Duke Johnson was basically unrostered this week. He checked in with average ownership of just 0.07% on DraftKings, and he was essentially not rostered in high-stakes tournaments. Johnson was elevated from the Dolphins’ practice squad earlier this week after Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, but both players were activated before their matchup against the Jets.
However, it seems as though the Dolphins weren’t ready to utilize either player. That allowed Johnson to feast on one of the worst run defenses in the league. He racked up 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns, making him the highest-scoring rusher on the slate.
If fantasy owners knew that Johnson was going to be featured, he would’ve been heavy chalk in this matchup. The very few who rolled the dice on him were rewarded handsomely.
Losers
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Johnson’s big game ended up coming at the expense of Myles Gaskin. He was still somewhat involved – racking up 10 carries for 54 yards – but fantasy managers were obviously expecting much more. He also didn’t catch a single pass, giving him just 5.4 DraftKings points on the slate.
Fantasy players expected Gaskin to serve as the Dolphins’ bell-cow back vs. the Jets, which is the role he’s held for most of the season. That resulted in 22.6% ownership across DraftKings tournaments, which was the second-highest mark at the position.
Considering how successful Johnson was, it’s easy to see why Gaskin was so popular. Unfortunately, things just didn’t work out.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers ended up beating the Titans in Week 15, but it certainly wasn’t pretty. They relied on their defense to make big plays, while their offense routinely stumbled.
Najee Harris has thrived on massive volume this season, but that wasn’t the case against the Titans. He finished with just 12 carries and two catches, which he turned into just 26 total yards. It was easily his worst performance of the year.
The Steelers finished with just 168 yards of total offense and roughly 20 minutes of possession, so the fact that they won this game was a borderline miracle. If not for four turnovers from the Titans, we’d be talking about the whole Steelers’ team being losers instead of just Harris.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Everything seemed to be set up perfectly for Kyler Murray in Week 15. The Cardinals owned the highest implied team total of the week, and he was facing a cake matchup against the Lions. Unsurprisingly, he was the highest-owned quarterback on the slate.
However, Murray turned in a dreadful performance. The Cardinals managed just 12 points, and most of Murray’s fantasy scoring didn’t come until garbage time. He did throw a late touchdown to Kirk to somewhat salvage his fantasy day, but his 13.58 DraftKings points were still very disappointing.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire
I was hoping Johnson would make it into the winning Milly Maker lineup. He had 0.11% ownership in that contest – his top mark in any DraftKings contest – but he ultimately didn’t make it. There just weren’t enough high-priced players for him to matter, especially with Huntley delivering massive value at quarterback.
Speaking of Huntley, he and Andrews are both featured on this team. They also ran it back with Davante Adams for the Packers, and while he was slightly disappointing, his 16.4 DraftKings points were good enough. Again, the abundance of value meant that a subpar performance from an $8,900 player wasn’t going to kill your lineup.
The rest of this team is composed of players in the $5,000 range. That includes Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Brandin Cooks at receiver, and Jeff Wilson and D’Onta Foreman at running back. Cooks absolutely crushed for his price tag – he was the highest-scoring receiver and the third-highest-scoring player on Sunday’s slate – while the rest of those players also delivered strong performances.
NFL $2M Mega Millionaire
This lineup is a bit different from the winning lineup in the large Milly Maker. The higher buy-in and smaller number of entries means you don’t have to be quite as perfect.
This team featured Aaron Rodgers at quarterback instead of Huntley, and they chose to implement a full game stack. They paired Rodgers with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at receiver, while Andrews was the bring back at tight end.
MVS ended up being an important player on this squad. There was a LOT of chalk in this lineup, with five players carrying ownership of at least 22.2%. That includes Davis, Adams, and Parker at receiver along with Wilson and James Robinson at running back. Robinson, Adams, and Parker were extremely chalky, with each player garnering at least 45.4% ownership.
Playing lots of chalk ended up working out this week, and eating some chalk on most weeks is a good strategy. After all, the reason the chalk players command massive ownership is because they’re regarded as the best plays.
That said, if you are going to eat an abundance of chalk like this user, you need to make sure you’re sprinkling in someone like MVS. His 3.1% roster percentage was enough to differentiate this lineup from all the other teams that leaned on Adams, Robinson and Parker.
$1.3M NFL Sunday Million
The winning lineup on FanDuel was very similar to the Milly Maker winner on DraftKings. The big difference is that with the extra salary cap space, this user was able to use Robinson and Deebo Samuel instead of Foreman and St. Brown. They also utilized the 49ers D instead of the Texans, although that was essentially a wash.
The cheaper players on DraftKings actually outscored the more expensive players on FanDuel, which brings up an important point: Don’t feel the need to spend the full cap. On some weeks, you need to scratch and claw to find every available dollar. In Week 15, the teams that spent well below the full cap probably did better on average than the teams that spent every dollar.
On weeks where there are an abundance of value, don’t be afraid to leave more money than usual on the table. Not only will it increase your chances of having a unique lineup, but it can propel you up the leaderboard if some of the higher-rostered expensive players disappoint. This isn’t a hard and fast rule – each NFL week is its own beast – but it’s something to keep in mind.
