Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Week 2 main slate is officially in the books, and it was an interesting one. There were only a few massive busts, but the biggest games still came from some unexpected places.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 2 main slate and some of the winning tournament lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Winners
Derrick Henry
What a game for Tractorcito. He was having a pretty quiet first half, but things can flip in an instant with Derrick Henry. He got in the endzone for the first time near the start of the second half, and he ripped off a patented 60-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. He then plunged into the endzone to send the game to overtime, where the Titans ultimately pulled out a victory.
Henry was also surprisingly involved in the passing game. He finished with six grabs for 55 receiving yards, which is a dimension he didn’t have last year. If he can add some receiving production to his rushing numbers, he has the potential to finish as the top player in fantasy this season.
Overall, Henry finished with a slate-high 50.7 DraftKings points at an average ownership of roughly 5.75%. That’s the definition of a slate-breaker. He was a bit more popular on FanDuel, but his 15.5% ownership still was far from chalky.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have a Wes Mantooth/Ron Burgundy relationship with Tom Brady. I may not like him, but gosh darn it do I respect him. He threw another five touchdown passes in Week 2, bringing his total to nine through the first two weeks. He’s not just surviving at 44 years old, he’s thriving.
He got his good buddy Rob Gronkowski involved again this week, resulting in two more touchdown connections. They’ve now connected for 102 touchdowns during their careers, which is the second-highest mark in NFL history. They’re just 12 behind Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, who connected for 114 touchdowns in Indianapolis. Overall, Gronk racked up 19.9 DKFP after finishing with 29.0 last week.
Mike Evans also got in on the fun with two touchdowns of his own, while Chris Godwin caught Brady’s fifth touchdown. Even the Buccaneers’ defense had two scores, so basically everyone got in on the party this week.
The only real disappointment was Antonio Brown, who caught just one pass for 17 yards.
Slot Receivers
It was a big day for diminutive slot receivers. Cooper Kupp put together another massive performance with Matthew Stafford, and he appears poised for a huge season. He racked up nine catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 39.8 DKFP.
Tyler Lockett also delivered his second-straight big game to start the year. He for 178 yards and a touchdown after finishing with 100 yards and two scores last week.
Finally, Rondale Moore got on the board with a big week for the Cardinals. Moore was expected to be a big part of the Cardinals’ offense this season, and he showed why vs. the Vikings. He finished with seven catches for 114 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown. Replacing the aging Larry Fitzgerald with Moore could make the Cardinals’ offense one of the best in football this season.
Ultimately, all three of these receivers were in the winning lineups for the large DraftKings and FanDuel $1M tournaments.
Losers
Cowboys/Chargers
This game was the highest-owned of the week, and it was expected to provide a cornucopia of fantasy points. The total was set at approximately 55.0 points, and it was supposed to feature two explosive offenses and two exploitable defenses.
Things didn’t exactly turn out that way. The Cowboys ultimately secured a 20-17 road victory that was marred by turnovers, penalties, and field goals.
That led to a lot of unhappy fantasy players. The only player who managed to return value in this game was Mike Williams, who scored the only touchdown for the Chargers. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper? Busts. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert? Busts. Keenan Allen and Jared Cook? Busts.
In the three biggest DFS contests across the industry, only Austin Ekeler and Herbert appeared in winning lineups. Considering that the vast majority of the field rostered at least one player from this game, that represents a massive disappointment.
Tyler Higbee
Tyler Higbee was the second-highest owned player at tight end on DraftKings this week, and there were reasons to believe in him. He played on a perfect 100% of the Rams’ snaps last week, and he also saw a healthy target share.
Unfortunately, he did not reach those same levels of success vs. the Colts. He managed just one catch for eight yards, and he saw just one target.
The big takeaway here is that TE chalk is almost always bad in tournaments. We should’ve learned our lesson last week with Kyle Pitts, and Higbee and Cook are just two more examples. The position is extremely volatile outside of Travis Kelce and maybe Darren Waller, so this is a spot where we should be diversifying more often than not.
Rookie Quarterbacks
What an awful week for the future of the quarterback position. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both had four interceptions, while Justin Fields suffered an injury. Tua Tagovailoa isn’t technically a rookie, but he also got injured early vs. the Bills.
None of those players are particularly relevant for DFS at the moment, but they torpedoed the fantasy value for the rest of their offenses. There will hopefully be some better weeks moving forward, but these guys were tough to watch on Sunday.
Winning Lineups
NFL $4.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
This lineup featured a very nice Buccaneers stack with Brady, Gronk, and Leonard Fournette, and they surprisingly didn’t bring it back with any members of the Falcons. That was probably a good thing since Cordarelle Patterson was the only member of the Falcons who smashed.
This lineup also featured all three of our featured slot wide receivers, and they correlated Lockett with Henry. That was more than enough to survive a subpar performance from the Cardinals defense and average performances from Marvin Jones Jr. and Leonard Fournette.
NFL $3.5M MEGA MILLIONAIRE
This is our most unique million-dollar winner on Sunday, which makes sense considering the field size. The entry fee to this contest was $4,444, so there were only 880 total entries. That meant the winning lineup had a much larger margin of victory.
This team rocked the combination of Henry and Kupp, which was a great first step. Henry had average ownership of just 5.7% in this contest, but lineups that finished in the top 1% rostered Henry at a 62.5% clip. Kupp’s ownership also jumps from 18.8% to 62.5% amongst the top 1% of lineups in the field, making them the two most important players in this victory.
K.J. Osborn also provided huge value thanks to a long touchdown for the Vikings.
Once again, this is a lineup that featured no bring back with their quarterback-wide receiver stack. “Game stacks” have become more and more popular in DFS, but they have not been required to win the big money to start the year.
$3M NFL Sunday Million
This lineup didn’t feature a ton of truly unique plays, with only one player checking with sub-7% ownership. That said, that player was Moore, who was an important one. This lineup stacked Moore with Kyler Murray, who had another huge game for the Cardinals, and once again features no bring back from the opposing team. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues throughout the full season or if it’s merely a small sample size.
This lineup also contained Lockett, Kupp, and Henry, giving this user the four highest-scoring non-QBs on the slate. The Bills’ defense also chipped in 22.0 points, while Najee Harris, Ekeler, and Pitts all held their own.
