NFL Circa Millions Picks: Week 6

We’re getting more into the meat of the season, and my two entries have diverged quite a bit in how they’re doing.

My first entry went 1-4 last week and is now 12-12-1, tied in the middle of the pack for 2,759th place. It really needs to move up or perhaps move down and go for some sort of weird booby/last place for the quarter prize. I’ll solely be doing half point plays for that one and may take even slightly bad lines.

My second entry went 3-2 last week and is 15-8-2, tied for 382nd place. I’ll continue to just make my favorite choices with this lineup.

Here are some of my picks for this week:

Week 6 Circa Millions Picks

Houston Texans +2

This just seems to be slightly better odds than the neutral line. The Texans are clearly much better than expected this year with C.J. Stroud as quarterback, so I like getting a couple of points at home with them.

Baltimore Ravens -4

This is a slightly better line than the current -4.5 and that half point can really matter. The Ravens are consistently much higher in our DAVE ratings than many realize. The Titans just can’t seem to get it together, and I think the Ravens should be more than four point favorites on a neutral site.

New England Patriots +3

The Patriots have been getting embarrassed lately, and I think at some point they’re going to show up. The Raiders are really a mediocre team with a talented WR1 and RB1. We’ve collectively gone from thinking Bill Belichick can walk on water to thinking he’s a total fraud of a coach that solely won because of Tom Brady in a matter of weeks. This just seems like a good get-right game for them, and this pick may not be that popular, so if it hits it may help me in the standings.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4

Not to hate on Minshew Mania, but I do think the Jags are the clear best team in the AFC South, and the London game goes to show it. Laying four at home is essentially saying this game is essentially saying the Jags are just a 1 point or so favorite on a neutral field.. The Jags offense really will be tough to stop once it starts clicking. While none of the AFC South teams does that well in our DAVE ratings, the Jags are much higher than the rest of the group.

Cleveland Browns +7.5

I’m only using this pick for my first entry, which desperately needs to get out of the middle of the pack. This is clearly a bad line at this point, so the 49ers side will be the most popular pick by far on the slate. Compound this with the 49ers looking like Gods last week, and the Browns starting PJ Walker this week. I actually think Walker is a serviceable backup, so it’s entirely possible the Browns lose by less than a touchdown at home. The neutral odds for +7.5 I’m seeing as of writing is about +125, which isn’t that bad. I certainly wouldn’t bet the Browns at +7.5 +100 which is essentially what I’m doing in this tournament as a cash bet, but I think it makes a great game theory play at this point with my first entry.