NFL Circa Millions Picks: Week 13

After going 4-1 in Circa Millions last week, my top lineup is 40-18-2 and tied for 13th place. It is one correct pick from being tied for fourth, three from first. To stay near the top, I’m going to have to continue to get at least three picks right each week.

I’ll be a little more defensive and likely take the clear best picks in terms of value and ones I just like.

Here are some of the sides I like most this week.

Week 13 Circa Millions Picks

Denver Broncos +3.5

I hate betting against C.J. Stroud and my hometown of Houston, but there are too many good reasons to grab this line. First, I’m generally seeing the neutral line at +3 now, so that free hook is simply too good to pass up. Second, our DVOA metrics have Houston as just a -1.8 favorite, making it this one of the better bets this week using DVOA. I am guessing this will be a popular pick, but that’s fine since I’m high enough in the standings I’m not going to take any stands just to be different.

Washington Commanders +9.5

Over Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the sexy Dolphins just blew out the Jets, and the hapless Commanders got blown out by the Cowboys. Everyone saw it and will think it will happen again. I can’t help but take the other side here and take the two-score home dog with a quarterback who can legitimately sling it to keep them close enough.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I’m seeing close to -6 as the neutral line, so I’ll take the small half point here. Our DVOA analysis has this as the highest confident bet as well, with a line that should be close to -8.5. I don’t like this side as much as the Broncos, but I’m still selecting it.