Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Holding my nose and taking the Browns worked out in my Circa Millions picks well last week, but that certainly wasn’t the case for the Titans. There are definitely some hated teams playing this week that may provide some line value, but others may just be value traps.
Read on to see which of these I think may provide value (or which value trap I may be falling into).
Week 9 Circa Millions Picks
Miami Dolphins +6
Even with Tua Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins couldn’t manage to win, getting eked out by the Cardinals 28-27. I do think this Dolphins team is at least halfway decent with Tua at quarterback, so I’ll take the points against an also-good Bills team. I’ll go against the public here, who are 90-10 on the Bills right now according to DraftKings. Our betting model agrees with me, even liking the Dolphins slightly at +5.5.
New York Giants +3.5
I’ll be honest — This is a Hail Mary pick for most of my teams since they’re behind and they need some Hail Mary picks to land. It’s pure game theory. No one else is choosing it, and it’s a half point, so I either get that full point to help me move up or my team stays in the dustbin. No one likes the Giants. The public hates this pick. Even the betting model doesn’t like this pick. The fact that the bookmakers seem content to leave the line here signals to me they like it enough that I’ll just hold my nose and take it since I need some ugly picks to win at this point for my entries to have a chance of cashing.
Indianapolis Colts +5.5
Everyone is ragging on the Colts for benching Anthony Richardson for a hopeless chance to make the playoffs with Joe Flacco. But I kind of think they make the playoffs, to be honest. Also think they are a good value against a Vikings team that has just overperformed this season. There is some line value here since I’m generally seeing Colts +5 at most places at this point, despite the public overwhelmingly betting the Vikings. A half point on 5 isn’t that valuable, but it’s something.
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
It’s great that Jameis Winston is the QB for the Browns, and I’m happy for them that they were able to upset the Ravens. But they’re still the Browns, and this Chargers team really is decent. The betting model loves this pick, and I’m always suspect when the public starts to actually like a team that they previously hated after an upset win and expect some sort of Cinderella turnaround. It wouldn’t shock me if the Chargers win this game by double digits.
