NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 6

I haven’t had the best start for my sports betting tournament entries, but the season isn’t even a third of the way done yet. Still, I’m going to focus more on a few contrarian picks as well as generally choosing half-point lines when possible to avoid pushes since I need a few 5-0 or 4-1 weeks to really get back up near the top.

Week 6 Circa Millions Picks

Cleveland Browns +10

Would have loved 10.5, but I’ll take +10. I’m not going to defend this team or Deshaun Watson at this point. However, it’s a lot of points, and it’s by far the most hated team in football. Our betting model loves the bet even at 9.5. The public is thoroughly on the Eagles. Everything in the TwoGun system says to take the Browns here, so I’m going with it.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2

I’m generally seeing +1.5 at most places, so I’ll take the free half point, even if it’s a fairly insignificant one. Both of these teams had much needed victories last week. I still view both of these teams as roughly similar in talent level, so I’ll take the two points with the underdog on a neutral field. This Jags team is finally showing real life with its offense, and I think they’ll be able to win a close game in London.

Baltimore Ravens -6.5

I mentioned taking half-point lines when possible, and this is one of them. Jayden Daniels has certainly been a star this year, but Lamar Jackson may very well be the clear back-to-back MVP when this season is all said and done. Our betting model also likes this bet, and I’m generally seeing -6.5 as slightly more expensive to bet on most sharp books than +6.5.