NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 4

I had some great DFS ideas for wide receivers last week, but my sports betting picks were pretty terrible. Hopefully, I do better this week and can bounce back in the standings at Circa and Westgate.

There are a few games this week that catch my eye in terms of value.

Week 4 Circa Millions Picks

New England Patriots +10.5

I can’t seem to quit the Patriots, but at least I’m getting double-digit points against San Francisco. I do think the Pats defense is at least decent. Perhaps the New York Jets are just good this year with Aaron Rodgers under center. After last week’s embarrassing prime-time loss, the Patriots may have a get right game.

You have to think the San Francisco 49ers will be the chalkier survivor picks this week. Given how any popular survivor play seems to just lose outright this year, maybe that trend continues this week. Or the Pats at least cover the spread. Our betting model seems to agree that 10.5 is just too much as well.

Los Angeles Chargers +7

The Chargers lost Justin Herbert in the second quarter, and that game just kind of got away from them. I do think the team is decent. Giving up a touchdown at home is too much

Yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they’re pretty lucky to still be undefeated considering how close all of their games have been. Without Isiah Pacheco and with a Travis Kelce who seems to have mentally moved on from football, the Chiefs really have limited skill players at their disposal outside of Rashee Rice and a somewhat unproven Xavier Worthy. I think the Chargers keep it close enough to cover the spread or even win. Our betting model seems to agree once again here.

Carolina Panthers +4.5

Perhaps the public just doesn’t believe the Bengals really can go 0-4, but I think this Andy Dalton-led Panthers just clearly has new life to them. Is it entirely possible the problem with the Panthers was Bryce Young all along?

Diontae Johnson looked like an elite WR1 last week, and their defense performed admirably. I just don’t think they should be this big of dogs at home against a Bengals team that can’t even beat the Patriots.

Washington Commanders +3.5

This is just a good, stale line at this point since most places have it at +3. I’ll take the free most important half point in all of football betting. I don’t hate the bet anyways since Jayden Daniels just looked phenomenal and doesn’t turn the ball over.