NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 13

As we near the end of the NFL season, game theory becomes a lot more in play in spread contests. Whether it is sneaking into cashing or getting at the top, I need to get a little weird for most of my lineups that need help.

Week 13 Circa Millions Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

I’m generally seeing +4 now, since it’s more likely Trevor Lawrence is playing. There’s some good line value here, and I’m not sure others will take it because it’s the freaking Jaguars.

New Orleans Saints +2.5

Believe it or not, both of these teams (the Saints and Rams) are within spitting distance of the current division leader. No one respects the NFC South and the Saints, whereas the NFC West probably gets too much respect. With Derek Carr back, this Saints team was able to eviscerate a Browns team that went on to defeat the fairly stout Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

I generally don’t love the “this team beat Team X, who beat Team Y, who is good” analysis, but I do think it is indicative that this Saints team can compete as long as Derek Carr is at quarterback, since Spencer Rattler just simply isn’t NFL quality, at least yet. With a bye week, they will also likely be able to get their new receiving corps up to speed. The betting model seems to like this bet as well.

Carolina Panthers +5.5

The NFC South is just bad all around, and I think people are respecting the Bucs a bit too much and keep thinking the Panthers are the team they were in October. The Panthers have won two of their last three games, and covered against the Chiefs, just losing by a field goal. Bryce Young and the Panthers offense have also had at least 20 points in those last three games.  In general, this game may be higher scoring than people expect, but I also don’t think the Panthers should be this large of a home underdog.