Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s getting late in the season, so it’s time to throw some Hail Marys for a lot of the entries. Even if some of the entries seemingly have no chance, they still can win the quarterly prizes, which you generally need to have a high variance strategy for anyway. Here are a few sides I like this week for sports betting contests:
Week 11 Circa Millions Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars +14
This is about as straightforward a pick you can make. Our betting model likes the Jags at even +13.5, so we have that in our favor. There’s a half point in line value as well. I would say it’s a contrarian pick as well since no one seems to be betting the Jags at sports books. However, in these contests, others may be attracted to it due to the lien value. Nevertheless, the Jags covered with Mac Jones last week, and I think they can do it again. It may get ugly, but it won’t be a three-score loss.
Tennessee Titans +6
This strikes me as the Titans’ Super Bowl of sorts. The season was disappointing, and they have no shot at the playoffs. Will Levis is playing for his job at this point, and the Vikings are a good but very beatable team. Our betting model likes the Titans, and I’m seeing some line value here since it’s often +5.5 at sportsbooks. I think one of the NFL’s most hated teams has a cover in them in this game and perhaps even an upset win at home.
New York Jets -4
This Jets team is disappointing and a bit of a mess, but there’s no bigger self-made mess in football than the Colts right now. Flip flopping quarterbacks and now they’re on the road against a pretty good defense. I think the Jets can just rely on their defense and their running backs to keep this game controlled with a sizeable lead.
