NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 10

As we get into the second part of the NFL season, when in doubt, take lines with half points to get you up the standings (or at least a better shot at the quarterly prizes) or let your entry RIP. I found a few half-point lines I like for Circa Millions this week.

Week 10 Circa Millions Picks

Denver Broncos +8.5

There’s a lot of line value in this line, since it’s generally at 7.5 at most places. Our betting model already loves the Broncos at +7.5, so I’m definitely taking 8.5 in the Circa contest. Denver has quietly had one of the best defenses in the NFL, and currently ranks seventh in defensive DVOA. It’s impressive that the Chiefs are still undefeated, but they are fifth in win differential at the AFC, so they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out.  I’ll take the Broncos to lose by less than a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys +7.5

America’s team is now America’s most hated team. I do think they can keep it to less than a touchdown at home. From a contest game theory standpoint, taking a half point spread on a very hated team is the way to go, especially if you are trying to catch up in the standings. There’s also some line value in this line, since I’m generally seeing + money on betting on the Eagles at -7.5.

Houston Texans +3.5

I’m going with the betting model again on this one. The Lions are certainly a great team, but so are the Texans. I’m going to fade people who are down on the Texans after their recent primetime setback. I’m getting the most important half point with this line, and I think the Texans can keep this game within a field goal. There’s a lot of focus on the Texans offense without their elite receivers, but the Texans defense still shines at second in overall defensive DVOA.