NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 1

I absolutely love sports betting contests. They are difficult to register for since you generally need to get to Nevada in person (or another state that hosts them) to register to play. However, once you register, you can generally use a proxy service to submit your weekly picks for you.

There are several reasons sports betting contests are vastly superior to straight bets and can provide a very high ROI:

1. These are generally promotional contests with zero rake, instead of the standard vig.
2. You are playing against other people, not the house. It is whoever has the best record at the end of the season that wins. This introduces game theory elements such as choosing less popular plays, especially near the end of the season.
3. The lines are posted Wednesday or Thursday, and you simply choose which sides you like best. However, since lines move due to news, injuries or public sentiment, sometimes the lines can get stale, and you can get a half point or more compared to the closing line. This introduces skill (taking the line) but also game theory (don’t take the stale line if you still think it’s not good and everyone is going to take it).

Last year, I got third in Circa’s sports betting contest (out of over 5,000 entries) and turned my $1,000 entry into $375k. It may not have been a million-dollar payday, but I certainly was happy about it!

Enough preaching about why to play sports betting contests — on to my favorite picks of the week!

Week 1 Circa Millions Picks

New England Patriots +8.5

As perhaps the only card-carrying member of the Jacoby Brissett fan club, this is my favorite play of the week. The true line is +8 currently, so you get a-half point value (I still like +8 if the contest had that though). I just like this Patriots team to bounce back this year since their offense can’t get any worse, and their defense may be quite decent. With everyone on the Bengals as their survivor pick this week, I doubt too many will be taking the Patriots in contests as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

Last year was disappointing for the Jags, and I think they may take a step forward this season. Miami’s flashy offense makes this line seem a bit low, but I think the Jags will win or keep it to less than a field goal. I’m also generally seeing more vig charged on the +3.5 than the -3.5 on the Dolphins, indicating +3.5 is slightly favored to win by the books.

Cleveland Browns -2

I’m sure a lot of people are surprised to even see the Browns favored in this game, which is what makes me like this pick even more. The Browns are one of my favorite teams going into this season, and I already placed some futures bets on them to win the AFC and even the Super Bowl. They get their starting quarterback back, a new wide receiver, and yet the general public thinks their offense is likely worse than their Flacco-led squad from late last year. Give me this unloved, disrespected team any day of the week.

Indianapolis Colts +2.5

I hate that I find myself fading my hometown Texans, but that’s where I am at the beginning of this season. The Texans and C.J. Stroud’s impressive performance last year and making it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs has really hyped up everyone’s expectations of this team.

The Colts have their potential superstar quarterback back and are playing at home. This just screams let down situation for the Texans and the public with the Colts winning this game to start the year.