Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The best way to describe Week 8 of NFL action is with a cheesy ‘90s song. “Who let the dogs out?” was the theme of this week as favorites and chalk bettors got crushed. Not just against the spread either — they got crushed ATS And outright in Week 8. We did not have a single favorite in the top 10 of our FTN power rankings win and cover a game this week. (The Packers won as a top-10, but they were dogs.) Buffalo pushed a -15 spread with Miami. The Rams, Chiefs and Cowboys all won too, but none covered. Overall, this was a good week to bet underdogs, both against the spread and as outright winners.
Against-the-Spread Report
Favorites had rolled the last couple weeks and led underdogs by a mark of 4-2-1 though the first seven weeks. The dogs bit back hard in Week 8, though. We had just four favorites win and cover this past weekend. None was a really top-end team, either. The Eagles crushed the Lions, the 49ers handled the Bears, the Seahawks drilled the Jags and the Broncos covered against Washington. Buffalo saw the spread drift up to -15, so the Bills actually pushed that game as the score ended 26-11, which means favorites on the weekend were just 4-9-1. A flat one-unit bet on the spread for every underdog in Week 8 would have returned over a five-unit profit. Dogs are still slightly down on the season, but the gap is very close after they crushed bettors this weekend. You can check how every team has done ATS here in our FTN betting trends.
NFL Underdog Records
In Weeks 1-4 of the NFL season, a flat one-unit bet on every underdog would have returned a profit. In Weeks 5-7, a flat one-unit bet on every underdog would have got crushed so badly that it erased any profits you would have made in Weeks 1-4 combined. This week, the pendulum shifted back to the dogs, as they absolutely crushed and some of them did so at pretty big payouts. Underdogs were 6-8 on the moneyline in Week 8, but payouts like the Jets at 4-1 more than made up for the few extra losses. The Jets, Packers, Titans, Steelers, Patriots and Panthers all won as underdogs last week. Most of them were in that +150 range, so dogs are now back as the more profitable moneyline bets on the year, which typically is the case due to the inflated payouts when a dog does win the game. To see which dogs are live this weekend, check out the first look at NFL opening lines video on FTNBets to see where the value is.
NFL Scoring Trends
Scoring in the NFL is up this year as a whole, but it has not led to profits as totals are also higher than they have been on the whole. Unders being more profitable bets than overs is a trend that continues this year because of the inflated totals and everyone should keep that fact in mind when they are wagering hard earned dollars. After last week, the records stand at 47 overs, 58 unders and 2 pushes through 8 weeks. That means a flat bet on the over has cashed 43.9% of the time. A flat bet on every under would have cashed 54.2% of the time and both would have pushed in just under 2% of games. Using our FTNBets odds calculator, you can see that a typical -110 bet would need to cash a little over 52% of the time in order for you to break even. That means at 54.2% for unders, they are flat bet profitable on the season so far. When in doubt, unders are the profitable way to play games so far in 2021.
