MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
We are coming down to the wire for the 2021 NFL season. It has been an interesting one for sports bettors and a profitable one for sportsbooks. Just when you think you have a good read on a team, they go out and lose to someone they should have crushed. Just when you think you understand the trends, they have a week like this one where you need to take a step back and readjust your entire view.
The NFL market has always been the most efficient and toughest to beat of the major sports, and the one constant for 2021 is that none of this has changed. Let’s take a look at how things turned out for Week 14 and see if we can find any hints to help us cash some bets for Week 15.
Against-the-Spread Report
Favorites tied up the season series at 6-6-1 last week after a string of weeks where the dogs barked loudly. If you want to know who let the dogs out this week, the answer was basically no one. We had a slew of big spreads, and the favorites pretty much covered in every instance and many times by wider margins than the big spreads they carried. We had 14 games in Week 14, and favorites were victorious in 11 of the 14. The only underdogs that cashed were the Falcons, Rams and Ravens. This not only swung the week-by-week record to 7-6-1 for the favorites, but the +7 units on the week also makes favorites the more profitable side to bet on for the season as a whole (assuming -110 standard juice). Will this dominance continue? Check out the first look at Week 15 NFL lines to see where the numbers land.
Underdog Records
A flat one-unit bet on every underdog each week returned a profit in nine of 13 weeks heading into Week 14. The strategy was up over 20 units on the season, so it has definitely been the way to go in 2021. This week that strategy would have been murdered along with most of your profits from the season to date. Only one underdog won outright Sunday, the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers. The Rams winning as a dog Monday night pushed that number to two, but neither team was a hefty enough price to make a dent in the 12 losses suffered by underdogs on the moneyline in Week 14. The only other team to come close was the Ravens, who lost to the Browns but did cover their spread. That means the season stats now sit at 9-5 in favor of the underdogs, but the seasonal profits were basically halved down to just over 10 units. It has still been profitable to bet the dogs in 2021, but anyone who was heavy on them in week 14 was left licking their wounds. To see which dogs might be able to surprise in Week 15, check out our FTNBets power rankings.
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NFL Scoring Trends
Scoring has been down in recent weeks, and over the course of the season it has been seen with unders far outpacing overs in terms of cashing. This week was the opposite. Overs cashed in nine of the 14 games played in Week 14. That is a stark contrast to what we have seen most weeks and for the season as a whole. The record for overs is now 92-110-2 through 14 weeks. That means unders have still cashed 53.9% of the time with 52.5% being the break even at standard -110 juice. Overs have cashed just 45% of the time with two games ending right on the listed closing total. A flat one-unit bet on every under is still profitable for the year, although it was a losing strategy of just shy of 5 units in week 14. Overs had a good day, but on the season you would still be down if you flat bet them on every game. To see how every team has done against the totals, check out our betting trends page on FTNBets.
