NFL betting trends entering Week 13

The NFL has been unpredictable this year. Contrary to the beliefs of many, this is nothing new. The NFL betting markets are the most efficient betting markets we have in the United States. Some may argue soccer on the international scale is as efficient and as big, but those are the two clear leaders. The NFL always has a lot of parity and a lot of surprises. That is the nature of the sport.

While any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday, the macro view of the NFL is right in line with what we usually see. Underdogs are profitable, unders come in more than overs, and none of this is any different than we have seen in recent years. I do not expect anyone to take my word for any of this, which is why we dive into the numbers to back up these statements. 

Against-the-Spread Report

Heading into Week 12, we had a tie — favorites had won five weeks, underdogs five, and the books won one week where dogs and favorites each won the same number of games. The season record was sitting at 5-5-1. In Week 12, the underdogs got back into the win column after losing in Week 11. Underdogs had been the better side in Weeks 8-10 as well, so over the last five weeks the dogs are 4-1. We had 15 games during Thanksgiving week, with favorites winning seven against the spread. Only one favorite won but failed to cover in Week 12 — the Bears, who needed a late field goal to squeeze out a victory on Thanksgiving against the Lions to open the week. Of those seven winning favorites, the Bills, Pats and Bengals won going away. The Falcons, 49ers, Ravens and Bucs all had closer victories but covered nonetheless. To see which favorites have the best chance to win in Week 13, check out the first look at the opening lines from FTNBets.

Underdog Records

We saw eight favorites win outright in Week 12, which means that seven underdogs were able to score victories. The Raiders, Jets, Giants, Dolphins, Broncos, Washington and the Packers all scored at plus money in Week 12. Despite the losing record, a flat bet on underdogs once again proved to be a profitable endeavor, as the odds on those underdogs more than made up for the extra loss they suffered. We now have seen a flat moneyline bet on every underdog return a profit in eight of the 12 weeks so far. It is profitable on the season, which further enforces the old adage that you will not go broke betting dogs. To see how each team has fared straight up and ATS this season, check out the records on our FTNBets NFL trend page. 

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NFL Scoring Trends

If you feel like this section has been a broken record, you are right. Unders coming in more often than overs has been a trend all season long. This week it was close with seven games going over, eight under. At -110, that still means a flat bet on unders eked out a profit again, even if that profit was only about 0.25 units. After adding in the 7-8 record for Week 12, the seasonal total now sits at 78 overs, 100 unders and 2 ties against the total. Overs have hit in just 43.3% of games this year. Using our FTNBets odds calculator, we can plug in -110 and see that you need to hit about 52.5% of the time in order to be profitable, which means flat bets on the over are a good way to burn money in 2021. Unders have come in at a clip of 55.5%, meaning if you did zero research and just bet one unit on every under for the entire season, you would be a profitable bettor. Remember that books know the general public loves betting overs, which is why smart bettors love going in the opposite direction, and that is where the value has been. Totals tend to be inflated, so keep this in mind before you plunk down hard-earned dollars on a game that you expect to shoot out. Remember that offense is in the mind of many fantasy players, but defenses in the NFL get paid too. We have a lot of haves and have nots in the NFL this year, and it takes two high-powered offenses putting up points to get some of these lofty overs. Buffalo was a good example on Thanksgiving. Their high-powered offense did the job and put up 31 points, but the putrid offense of the injury-riddled opposing Saints could only manage to put up six points and were the reason that game played to the under. We are seeing a lot of these one-sided games, and a one-sided game is very unlikely to get to the over. In other words, it takes two to tango, and it also takes two offenses clicking to get the scoreboard jumping. You can fight the trend all you want, just realize betting overs is like taking a chance on a game that you are most likely going to lose more often than you win.