NFL betting trends entering Week 11

Ten weeks of NFL football games are in the books. This year, the NFL season spans 18 weeks, so the second half is firmly underway. The remaining eight weeks of action will decide who gets to go on to the playoffs and who will be enjoying some rest and relaxation.

The 10 weeks of data we have have painted a picture. Some parts of the picture we have seen painted in past seasons. Underdogs are profitable, unders remain the better side, and betting on NFL football is hard. We also have seen some new twists, such as higher scores, higher totals and more double-digit favorites as the parity in the NFL argument comes under fire.

We dive into the numbers weekly in order to figure out which trends we can count on, and which narratives do not hold up against the data. Here are the top trends to watch heading into Week 11. 

Against-the-Spread Report

Underdogs came up big for a third week in a row against the spread. After falling behind favorites 4-2-1 through the first seven weeks of the season, underdogs have stormed back to take a 5-4-1 lead after Week 10. We had only five favorites win and cover in Week 10 — the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers and Chiefs. Every single one of those games turned into a blowout. Green Bay only put up 17 points, but they won 17-0 so that qualifies as a one-sided game too. The other four games saw the Chiefs win by 27, the Bills by 28, the Patriots by 38 and the Cowboys by 40. The five teams that won and covered this week did so by an average of 30 points. This is where the parity argument starts to creep in. The league does have a lot of have and have not type of teams this year. You can see the total picture when you look at the power rankings on FTNBets.

Underdog Records

Underdogs not only had another big week against the spread, but another profitable week on the moneyline. We had 14 NFL games this weekend, and favorites went 7-6-1. Remember that moneyline bets on underdogs pay more than even money, so despite a losing record, they were still profitable. In addition to the five favorites who won and covered in Week 10, we had two more favorites in the Titans and Colts win, but not cover. We also had a push as the Steelers and Jaguars finished in a tie. The other six winners in Week 10 were Miami, Washington, Minnesota, Carolina, Philadelphia and San Francisco. A flat bet of one unit on every dog was profitable again this week. That pushes the seasonal record to seven weeks where that strategy had a positive gain. It has also returned a flat rate profit if you were to do it for every game the entire season. The old adage seems to be holding true that you never go broke betting underdogs. To see which dogs have the best chance to bark loudly this week, check out the first look at the opening lines video on FTNBets. 

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NFL Scoring Trends

This may be paradoxical, but scoring in the NFL is up this year and flirting with 2021 being the highest-scoring NFL season on record. Despite that, unders continue to rule the day. On the season, we have had 66 games played to the over. We have also had 82 games played to the under with two ending right on the Vegas closing line total. That is 150 total games played. That means 44% of games have ended on the over. A flat one-unit bet on every over would have a bettor down a little over 20 units on the season at a standard -110 payout. We have seen 54.6% of games finish under the total. If you bet one unit on every under at -110, that would be a profit of 8.6 units on the season. It may seem like a paradox, but the explanation is rather simple. Scoring is up in the NFL, but so are the game totals. Totals seem to have risen more than actual average scoring has, which is creating an opportunity to make money by betting unders. Books have historically shaded totals to the over as well, since most of the betting public tends to place bets in that direction. Sharp bettors have known for a long time that betting unders was the more profitable route and so far this season it has held true. To see what every team has done individually with respect to the totals, check out the betting trends for the 2021 season on FTNBets.