Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have officially passed the halfway mark of the NFL season. We are also coming off one of the wackiest weeks we have had all year. Books made an absolute killing in Week 9, as top teaser and parlay pieces like the Bills and Rams lost outright. Other popular plays like the Chiefs and Ravens did not cover, although they did walk away with wins. We had more movement in our FTN Power Rankings this week than any other week and surprisingly the movement was near the top, which is highly unusual.
Here’s how Week 9 broke down and how that fits in the more macro view of the 2021 season as a whole.
Against-the-Spread Report
Heading into Week 9, a flat bet on favorites produced a profit in four of eight weeks. Underdogs had been the better side in three weeks and one week the books won as the same amount of favorites and dogs cashed allowing them to collect their rake on both sides. Dogs were the better side last week at 4-9-1, and this week the dogs barked loudly again. Only five favorites won and covered in Week 9. We had six underdogs win outright and another three lose but cover the spread. That means favorites went just 5-9 on the week, chalking up a big victory for underdog bettors. To see how each individual team has done on the season, check out our FTN Betting Trends.
NFL Underdog Records
The season has ebbed and flowed in terms of where the money should be. In the opening four weeks of the season, a flat bet on underdogs created a profit each week. In Weeks 5-7, that strategy would have been crushed. Last week it was a huge win for dogs, swinging them back to profitability on the season. This week we had six underdogs win the games outright. Despite just a 6-8 record for underdogs, the payouts on some of the winners were pretty big. These big payouts more than covered the losses, making this another profitable week for flat betting one unit per game on underdogs. That means flat-betting one unit on every dog for the season has been profitable in six of nine weeks. The old adage that you never go broke betting dogs seems to be holding true for the 2021 season. To see which dogs make the most sense for Week 10, check out our early look at the betting lines for this weekend’s games.
NFL Scoring Trends
Despite the fact that scoring remains elevated around the league, betting on overs still remains a losing bet through Week 9. The seasonal record is now 61-73-2. That means overs have cashed in 44.8% of games this season, which seems odd considering that scoring as a whole in the NFL is currently on pace to set a record even without the added game factored in. Unders are currently cashing at 53.6%. Using our FTN Odds Calculator, we can see that break-even winning percentage is around 52.5% at the standard -110 odds on over/under bets. This means you have a small profit on the year if you just blindly bet unders in every game. This is not a new trend in the NFL as books know the casual bettor tends to bet overs way more than unders, so keep that in mind. When in doubt, underdogs and unders are still the more profitable way to play NFL betting lines.
