Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL Conference Championship round is this weekend, and that means we are down to the final four teams. Last week was an epic one in the NFL, as all four games went down to the wire.
We will continue to have fewer games each week, so the small sample size is not really one we should look at by itself. The better way to view these games is against the backdrop of the full season of data we already have to see if these results are part of the larger trend, or just one-week blips on the radar.
Here’s how the games ended up in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Against-the-Spread Results
Favorites were the side during the regular season, having a 10-7-1 weekly record against underdogs. Favorites covered in five of the six games played on Wild Card weekend too. This week turned out the opposite way, as only one favorite covered the spread. The funny thing is that it took a drive with under two minutes to take the lead, a field goal drive to push the game into overtime, and a touchdown in overtime for that favorite to cover. It was an amazing finish for backers of the Kansas City Chiefs and a gut-wrenching one for those who were on the Bills. Favorites were just 1-3 on the week, but I think this is one of those blips on the radar. Including the playoffs, you still were better off backing all the favorites in 11 weeks, with underdogs being tops in eight weeks, and then finishing dead even once.
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Underdog Report
Favorites won more weeks on the moneyline, but the payouts for the underdogs can make them profitable even if more favorites end up winning. This angle did not produce a loss this season, but the profit per week was not worth the effort of betting a unit on every underdog. If you had decided to do it this week, you would have made a nice profit. Not only did three favorites fail to cover out of four games this weekend, but all three of them lost outright. The Bengals were underdogs against the Titans, the 49ers were dogs against the Packers, and the Rams were dogs against the defending champion Buccaneers. The Rams did not pay a ton at +120, but you saw much nicer payouts on the Bengals and 49ers. The numbers depend on when you got in and at what book, but anyone who backed all the dogs likely ended up making a few units on a 3-1 day.
NFL Totals
The under had hit at about a 10% higher clip than overs did this year. The sample size here is important, because you have a few hundred games of the season vs. four that took place this week. Three of the four games had a total around 48 this week. Two of those games finished way under. The Bengals and Titans combined for just 35, while the 49ers and Packers ended with just 23. The Rams and Bucs went over, scoring 57 points, clearing it by more than a score. The final game had an elevated total of 54.5 between the Chiefs and Bills. That game finished with 78 total points, due to a barrage of late-game scores. The totals ended up with two overs and two unders on the week, but that barely puts a dent in the numbers on the season. Unders were still vastly for likely at over 54%. Remember at standard -110 juice you need to win 52.5% of the time to make a profit. It did not work out this week as you would have lost a bit on the juice, but over the season it was profitably to blindly bet the under in every NFL game.
