Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week in this space, I’m going to take a trip through the FTN air yards tool to find some of the most interesting and actionable takeaways for fantasy football.
Air yards represent the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the intended target. Regardless of whether a pass was complete or incomplete, air yards measure the amount of ground covered from passer to pass catcher. It does not account for the yards after catch on a completed pass. When calculating air yards, it’s important to keep in mind that not all air yards are created equal. An on-target throw is much more valuable than an uncatchable ball, even if the air yards are greater. Although air yards are not inductive of fantasy success, it’s a great way to calculate opportunity. The Weighted Opportunity Rating incorporates players’ share of team targets and the percentage of team air yards. Fantasy scoring is difficult to predict; however, opportunities are usually a stick stat and can translate to current and future output. Every week I will go position by position, highlighting the leaders in air yards. You can access the free air yards tool at FTN Fantasy.
Week 13 Air Yards Leaders
Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
(426 air yards, fantasy QB1)
Josh Allen put on a show on Thanksgiving Day, throwing 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. Tied at 25-25, Allen received the ball with less than 30 seconds in regulation and led the Bills to a game-winning drive, capped off by a Tyler Bass field goal. It was only the third time Allen attempted more than 40 passes this season (42) and his third game with over 75 rushing yards (78).
Runner-up: Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns (420 air yards, fantasy QB21)
Season leader: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (3,589 air yards, fantasy QB2)
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
(188 air yards, fantasy WR20)
Amari Cooper fell just short of 100 receiving yards in his last game with Jacoby Brissett, catching seven passes on 12 targets for 94 yards. After a brutal fourth-down drop, Cooper broke free for a 45-yard reception in overtime that set up Nick Chubb for a walk-off touchdown. Cooper has been one of the best draft day values this season, currently ranked as the WR8, and could be even better with Deshaun Watson set to debut in Week 13.
Runner-up: Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (171 air yards, fantasy WR31)
Season leader: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (1,349 air yards, fantasy WR3)
Tight End
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders
(94 air yards, fantasy TE9)
Foster Moreau continues to produce with Darren Waller on the injured reserve, finishing as a top-10 tight end for the second time in the last three weeks. After running a route on just 61% of the Raiders’ dropbacks in Week 11, Moreau was back to 90% in Week 12, catching three of seven passes for 33 yards and a touchdown. His four end zone targets this season are tied for 11th-most at the position, despite playing behind Waller for half the year. With Waller and Hunter Renfrow unlikely to return in Week 13, Moreau should continue to operate as the second or third option for the Raiders’ pass attack.
Runner-up: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (50 air yards, fantasy TE12)
Season leader: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (833 air yards, fantasy TE2)
Running Back
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
(36 air yards, fantasy RB11)
Aaron Jones‘ usage in the passing game has not been great without Davante Adams; however, he had one of his best games as a receiver in Week 12. Jones caught three of four passes for a season-high 56 yards and a receiving touchdown. It was only his second game with 40-plus receiving yards and his third game with a receiving touchdown. Although he was second on the team in rushing yards, behind AJ Dillon, Jones handled four more carries and had a 71% snap share compared to Dillon’s 43%. Jones is still the clear RB1 in Green Bay, but both can be started next week against a Bears team allowing the 6th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.1 PPR points).
Runner-up: Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas Raiders (24 air yards, fantasy RB20)
Season leader: Breece Hall, New York Jets (147 air yards, fantasy RB26)
