2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Welcome to the unintentional wide receiver and tight end edition of “Dynasty Moves to Make.” A regression to the mean was due after an RB-heavy edition last week. Coincidentally, at least one player I touch on is owed a heavy dose of touchdown regression. But is it positive or negative?
As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for OBJ and a Big Mouth Billy Bass. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Dynasty Moves to Make: Buys
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Even though 2024 will be his sixth season in the NFL, DK Metcalf will only be 26 years old at the start of the season (turning 27 in December). Despite the Seahawks ranking dead last in plays last year, Metcalf was in the top 10 in deep targets (26) and red zone targets (24). His 16.9 yards per reception was sixth best in the league. He’s averaged 14.1 PPR points per game over the past four seasons in Pete Carroll’s archaic run-first (and second … and third …) offense, averaging 79 catches, 130 targets, 1,108 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns per season. If new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb can adapt his high-flying offense to work in the NFL, Metcalf could jump into the elite dynasty wide receiver talk. He’s no longer the sexy name he once was, but Metcalf still has the talent, youth, and upside to put together multiple WR1 seasons.
Players I’d be willing to trade for Metcalf 1 for 1: Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, DJ Moore
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
The offseason reports of a camp connection between new Steelers QB Russell Wilson and Pat Freiermuth are welcome news to those who roster the tight end, and there are multiple other indicators that 2024 could truly be the year that the ‘Muth runs luth loose. Arthur Smith will forever be fantasy football public enemy No. 1 for the way he misused Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London. However, his offense featured the tight end during his Falcons tenure, seeing more than 26% of targets in each of his three seasons in Atlanta. Diontae Johnson has gone to Carolina, and while George Pickens makes spectacular catches, he’s yet to prove he can be the top pass-catching option for Pittsburg. Going into a contract year, a motivated ‘Muth could emerge as just that.
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