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Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown

NFL Bets



Week 4 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Raiders have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. They’ve jumped out to a 3-0 record, including upset wins over the Ravens and Steelers. They also overcame a 14-point deficit last week vs. the Dolphins to pull off an overtime victory.

Meanwhile, the Chargers enter this game at 2-1 and are coming off a potentially season-defining win last week vs. the Chiefs.

Who has the edge in this AFC West showdown? Let’s dive in.


Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 4 Odds 

Date/Time: October 4, 8:15 p.m. ET
Arena: SoFi Stadium
How to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening odds: Chargers -3.5 | O/U 53.0

Latest Raiders-Chargers odds

Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Chargers -3.0
  • Total: 51.0

For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.

Opening odds – Raiders vs. Chargers

The betting activity on the spread has been interesting to start the week. The vast majority of the dollars have landed on the Chargers, yet the line has actually moved in the Raiders’ favor.

That said, it does appear that most of the recent money is siding with the Raiders. They had just 10% of the spread dollars on Wednesday, but that number is closer to 30% at the time of writing. That could explain the line move.

The biggest sharp lean in this contest appears to be on the under. There have already been three steam moves tracked on the under, which has dropped the total to 51.0. 

Once again, the timing of the bets is important. All the steam moves occurred at 52.5 or greater, so it remains to be seen if the sharps have any interest in the under at the current number.

Quarterback analysis — Derek Carr vs. Justin Herbert

Derek Carr has gotten off to a fantastic start this season. He leads the league with 1,203 passing yards, resulting in an absurd average of 401 yards per game. His previous career-high in that department is 262.5, so he’s on pace to shatter that mark.

Carr has also been efficient with his pass attempts this season. He’s averaged 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt, which is the eighth-best mark in the league.

Carr will take the field as a road underdog in this matchup, which has historically been his most profitable split. He owns a record of 24-18 ATS, rewarding bettors with a +11.2% return on investment.

Justin Herbert has been excellent since stepping on the field as a rookie last year. He hasn’t taken a massive step forward in his sophomore season, but he has racked up two game-winning drives through the first three weeks. That’s a nice development.

Herbert is still building his resume against the spread, but he’s 10-8 ATS as a starter. That said, he’s only 4-5 ATS as a favorite, including 3-4 as a home favorite.

Latest Raiders betting news & info

The Raiders’ only real injury question at the moment involves Josh Jacobs, he’s missed the past two weeks with an injury, and he’s currently considered a game-time decision. He’s gotten in limited practices this week, which does provide some optimism that he’ll be able to suit up.

His return would give the Raiders’ running game a nice boost in an excellent matchup. The Chargers rank 31st in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, so they could find more success than usual on the ground. The Raiders rank just 30th in rushing DVOA, but Jacobs is definitely an upgrade over Peyton Barber.

Latest Chargers betting news & info

The Chargers are in a better spot from an injury perspective. They don’t really have anyone of much importance out of the lineup at the moment, so they’re essentially at full strength.

The only thing is, the Chargers might not be that good at full strength. They currently rank 22nd in overall DVOA, which puts them well behind the Raiders in that category. Their two wins have come by a total of just 10 points, giving them an expected record of 1.7-1.3 to start the year. They haven’t been super lucky, but they might not be as good as some were hoping for at the start of the year.

Their special teams also remain a huge concern. That’s never really talked about when handicapping games, but the Chargers rank dead-last in special teams DVOA this season. Tristan Vizcaino has already missed two extra points and one field goal attempt, and poor special teams have cost the Chargers multiple wins over the past decade. I’m not saying that will be a factor vs. the Raiders, but it is something to think about.

Raiders vs. Chargers betting picks – NFL Week 4

This game doesn’t stand out as a slam dunk, but I think the Raiders are the right side. Not only has Carr been at his best historically as a road underdog, but the current spread suggests these teams are essentially even on a neutral field. Given what we’ve seen so far this season, I can’t agree with that assessment.

Herbert has gotten plenty of ink to start his career — and deservedly so — but Carr is the better quarterback at this point in time. The emergence of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards gives this team the downfield threat they’ve been missing in years past, so I think their passing offense is legit. If Jacobs can give them a bit more balance on the ground, they should be able to rack up points against the Chargers D.

The Raiders were definitely more appealing as 3.5-point underdogs, so I’ll be watching to see if the line gets back to that number at some point before kickoff. If it does, it won’t be afraid to grab it.

FTNBets best bets

  • Raiders +3.0

For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.

How to bet on this game

If you want to bet on this matchup and don’t already have a sportsbook account set up, check out FTNBets’ top sportsbooks page. You can see what shops are available in your state while also comparing lines, odds, promotions and bonuses to ensure you get the best value for your investment.

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