Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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No team in the NFL has had more success grabbing Day 2/Day 3 receivers in the NFL Draft in recent years than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Antonio Brown was a sixth-round pick. JuJu Smith-Schuster a second. Diontae Johnson a third. Chase Claypool a second.
The latest addition to that impressive list of later-round success appears to be George Pickens, a 2022 rookie out of Georgia who the Steelers grabbed in the second round. After a bit of a slow start to his NFL career, Pickens is now the clear-cut No. 2 receiver in Pittsburgh (and he might have been that already), and that presents big opportunity.
George Pickens History
Pickens was a start in 2019 for Georgia, going for 727 yards and 8 TDs in 12 games as a freshman. He followed that up with 513 and 6 as a sophomore in an abbreviated 2020 season, then missed almost the entire 2021 season with a torn ACL, returning for the last four games but catching just five passes. He entered the draft as a tantalizing prospect but with obvious worries about his still-recovering knee. That’s why he fell to the back half of the second round, where the Steelers grabbed him.
On Mojo, the landing spot didn’t really move the needle when it came to Pickens’ value. He floated just above/below $7.00 in Mojo stock before the draft, and he stayed there for a month or so even after the WR machine picked him up. But then as the offseason went on and training camp started, the drumbeats started. Pickens was one of the stars of training camp, getting early Offensive Rookie of the Year buzz and rising as high as $9.37 in Mojo value just before the season started. The buzz died down when Pickens caught only 5-of-12 targets through his first three weeks for 65 scoreless yards, while Johnson, Claypool and a disappointing offense combined to hold his value in check. He had at least 6 targets in five straight games in Weeks 3-7, though, including his first career touchdown in Week 7.
Going Forward
Claypool is gone. Johnson is still there, as is Pat Freiermuth. But the backfield has been a big disappointment, and Claypool’s departure opens up 6.3 targets per game in this offense. Pickens is already averaging just over 5 targets a game (even counting his slow start), 6.3 since Week 4. If he even gets a couple of Claypool’s vacated targets, he’s an 8-target-a-game receiver, roughly what big names like Courtland Sutton, Amari Cooper and now-in-KC Smith-Schuster are garnering.
Summary
It’s rarely advisable to grab a stock when it is at its peak, and Pickens’ $10.03 stock value on Mojo right now is the highest its ever been. But there are exceptions to every rule, and Pickens could be that. The Steelers introduced Kenny Pickett to his starting career right at the start of just about the toughest stretch of games imaginable, throwing him against the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles (three on the road) in his first four games. It went predictably poorly. Now, coming out of the bye, things ease way up for the Steelers, as the team faces the Saints, Bengals, Colts, Falcons, Ravens, Panthers, Raiders, Ravens and Browns the rest of the way. That’s one of the most amenable schedules in the league, with rookie quarterback and receiver who have now had a few weeks to work together and a bye to gel. George Pickens, getting 8 targets a game (or more), is likely to shoot up from his already-peak Mojo value, and that makes this a time to buy-high.
