Matt’s Musings | NFL Data Study, Week 17

Every Monday, I find myself in a bit of NFL data purgatory. We’re waiting for the week to come to a proper ending, and the data is still yet to be finalized. It’s a great time, however, to look at some historical trends and do some digging on some things we can leverage in the upcoming week. This piece will be out on Tuesdays, but it won’t have the same format or topic each week. The formula will change as I poke around with the data we have access to here. It’ll just be my musings on something that caught my eye. If there’s something to it, I’ll give you some way to leverage the conclusions in fantasy for the upcoming week.

Early Passing Leads to Success

We spend a lot of time discussing split-second decisions that coaches and players need to make. In fact, I’ve devoted time the past couple of weeks to dissecting those decisions. When the scoreboard is still neutral, teams have a philosophical approach to how they handle early downs. That approach is dictated through the game plan for the week. If our understanding of the game is correct, then the teams that are passing the most frequently on early downs are more likely to have a successful series and, therefore, are more likely to score.

We see the teams with the highest series success rates are generally the ones doing well in the standings. The two highest success rate teams in neutral game scripts also happen to be the most likely to earn a first-round bye. This isn’t a surprise, obviously, but it confirms what we think about how offenses should be run.

Playoff Picture

 Here’s a look at the top ten in neutral-script, early-down passing rate. 

Six teams have already clinched playoff spots. All six of them are on this list. This isn’t a coincidence. We know that the teams that are willing (and able) to pass more, even when the game is close, are going to be more successful in the long run.