Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | TNF Props | Anytime Touchdowns
Chris Meaney
Week 15 was one of the most bizarre weeks of fantasy football in recent memory, and of course it comes during the opening round of the playoffs. If you somehow survived the madness and volatility, it isn’t too early to look ahead towards your semifinal matchups.
Let’s take a look at the matchups to target in Week 16.
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Atlanta Falcons
Over the last three weeks, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been stellar, hauling in 26 passes for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s coming off a game against the Cardinals where he saw an absurd 42.3% target share and during the aforementioned three-week span, St. Brown has seen just over 34% of Detroit’s targets, while the Lions continue to use him all over the formation, especially in the absences of T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. Over the last three weeks, the rookie wideout has lined up out of the slot 62.7% of the time but has also taken eight snaps out of the backfield during that span, as Detroit has begun manufacturing touches. Entrenched as the clear focal point of this passing game, St. Brown now gets a matchup with a Falcons defense that is coughing up the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL this season (5.5%). Look for him to remain a high-volume WR2 for the fantasy semifinals.
Bengals WRs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati’s offense is coming off a down game, but I love Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to get back on track in Week 16. For starters, running back Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury and could sit out but even if he’s active, I expect the Bengals to find more success through the air in this game. A whopping 75.4% of the yardage allowed by the Ravens defense this season has come via the pass, the highest rate in the NFL. Their secondary is missing so many players and we already saw Chase go for over 200 yards against this team when they were much healthier. The Ravens allow a ton of huge plays in the passing game, as they are surrendering the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5), as well as a league-worst 12.2 yards per completion. They are also allowing an aDOT of 8.6 yards, the fifth-highest mark in football, making this a very nice spot for both Higgins and Chase.
Broncos RBs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Denver continues to play to their strengths on offense, which is running the football with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Both running backs carried the ball 15 times Sunday and I expect Denver’s ground game to find plenty of success against a Raiders defense that is surrendering 125.3 rushing yards per game on the year (seventh most), as well as the 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game. They are coming off a game against the Chiefs where they allowed four total touchdowns to the combination of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore.
James Robinson @ New York Jets
James Robinson was the clear lead back for the Jaguars Sunday, logging 84% of the snaps and handling 18 of the 19 running back touches. The production was solid, as he rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown, but the matchup is even better this weekend, as Robinson faces a Jets defense that is coughing up a league-worst 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game this season, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 50.3% of drives against New York this season, easily the highest rate in the league. The Jets are also allowing the most points per drive in football (2.75).
Russell Gage vs. Detroit Lions
Russell Gage has been very strong over the last four weeks, averaging 7.2 receptions, 9 targets and 87 receiving yards per game, while scoring two touchdowns during that span. He has been the clear top target in this passing game, especially considering the Falcons aren’t taking shots down the field and Gage is doing most of his work in the intermediate parts of the field. Gage is sporting a modest 8.4-yard aDOT, which is just outside of the top-20 among qualified receivers. Look for him to keep it going this week against a Lions defense that ranks bottom-five when it comes to fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position this season.
