Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Mark Andrews’ breakout was said to have come in 2019 when he made his first Pro Bowl. Last season, he broke out from his breakout and overtook Travis Kelce as the best receiving tight end in the NFL, at least for one season.
Andrews put up a gaudy 107 receptions, 1,361 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2021. He became just the seventh tight end to top 100 catches since the turn of the millennium and he posted the third-highest reception and yardage totals ever for the position.
Now, with Marquise Brown in Arizona, Mark Andrews will enter the season as the undeniable alpha in Baltimore’s receiving game. Surely he’ll put up numbers that closely resemble those of his breakout campaign, right? Oddsmakers don’t necessarily think so.
His reception and receiving yardage props are considerably lower than where he finished last season. Currently, DraftKings Sportsbook has his reception total set at 84.5 while his yardage total sits at 1000.5. His touchdown prop, positioned at 8.5, falls more in line with his total from last season.
So, will Andrews’ rapport with Lamar Jackson and limited competition for targets win out? Or will opposing defenses successfully do everything in their power to take away the Ravens’ number one option?
Mark Andrews Prop Bets for 2022
(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
How Many Receptions will Mark Andrews Have in 2022?
Under 84.5 (-140)
It’s tough to predict that the guy who is coming off one of the best tight end receiving seasons in recent memory will fall short of expectations, but this number is a little too high for my taste. Andrews’ 107 catches last year came in an offense that ran the most plays in the NFL and threw the ball 56% of the time.
In a vacuum, 56% isn’t special. In fact, that 56% pass rate ranked 21st in the NFL. But it’s important because each of the two prior seasons, Baltimore only threw the ball 44% of the time according to the FTNBets Pace Tool. That ranked dead last by a wide margin in 2019 and 2020.
“So what, they threw it a lot last year and Andrews was great.” This is true, but the Ravens’ passing game was inefficient, they missed the playoffs, and they were uniquely shorthanded on offense. After losing their two starting running backs, their star left tackle and their best blocking tight end, the Ravens had no choice but to air it out.
Since 2014, 17 tight ends have eclipsed 84.5 receptions. Of those 17, only one – George Kittle in 2019 – hit this number while playing for a team that threw the ball less than 56% of the time. In April, Baltimore drafted a center, a tackle, two tight ends and a running back. If the Ravens pass the ball just a little bit less, which seems like their plan, history says Andrews probably won’t catch the ball 85 times.
History isn’t as easy as copy-paste, but running was the Ravens’ identity before an injury-riddled 2022. Fade Andrews in what projects to be a run-first scheme.
How Many Receiving Yards will Mark Andrews Have in 2022?
Under 1,000.5 (-115)
The same logic from above applies to taking the under on Andrews’ yardage total. 1,000 yards is a steep dropoff from the 1,361 yards he racked up last season, but I don’t think this offense will look the same.
Assuming that 56% pass rate comes down closer to an even 50-50 split, total plays would come down as well. Running the ball more often means more time is being taken off the clock and effectively shortening the game. With less passing attempts and less plays overall, Andrews would need uber efficiency and to maintain his massive 26% target share while battling defenses that are hyper-focused on him.
Can Mark Andrews overcome a run-heavy scheme and double teams? Yes, he’s very good at football. But life will be harder for him than last season and injuries can come into play when betting season-long props. 17-game projections might have Andrews above his prop totals, but missing a game or pushing through injuries can have a huge impact on reception and yardage totals.
If you’re confident that he could soar past these numbers even while missing time, take the over. I’m not, so I won’t.
How Many Touchdown Receptions Will Mark Andrews Have in 2022?
Over 8.5 TD Receptions (-115)
Am I a hypocrite? I just made you read 500 words on why Mark Andrews won’t actually be that great (according to counting stats) and now I’m taking the over on his touchdowns?
When the Ravens ran the ball more than they threw it in ‘19 and ‘20, the entire offense was better, including the passing game and especially the red zone passing game. From 2019-2021, Baltimore’s red zone passing offense ranked second, fifth and 28th, respectively, according to PFF. Scoring chances should increase with a healthier backfield and offensive line, and that bodes well for Andrews. He’s become Lamar Jackson’s favorite red zone and end zone target over the past few seasons.
In 2021, Andrews ranked top-10 in the NFL in:
- Red zone targets
- Red zone touchdowns
- End zone targets
- End zone touchdowns
He was also No. 1 in each category among tight ends. All nine of his touchdowns came in the red zone last season, when the Ravens’ offense was significantly worse inside their opponents’ 20-yard line than in years past. More red zone chances, improved red zone offense and a knack for getting those valuable targets push me to take the over on 8.5 touchdowns.
How to Bet Mark Andrews Props
If you are looking to bet on props like receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, FTNBets has all the tools to get you started. Sign up for a sportsbook account using our affiliate link and take a deep dive into all the different NFL futures markets that legal books offer.
Mark Andrews’ 2022 receiving yards prop is set at 1,000.5 yards and the under has -115 odds. In this example, you would need to bet $115 that Andrews will have fewer than 1,000.5 receiving yards in order to make a $100 profit.
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to view parlay payouts based on each leg’s odds and the amount of money wagered.
