Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All Time Record @FTNBets: 667-608, +93.09u
Cincinnati Bengals
10-7, AFC North Champs
Los Angeles Rams
12-5, NFC West Champs
Betting Records
Against the Spread
CIN: 13-7
LA: 10-10
CIN ATS (Away): 8-2 (1st), CIN covered by an average of +9.5 PPG (1st)
LA ATS (Home): 5-5
LA ATS (Favorite): 7-10-0 (only TB and KC have been favored more this season)
CIN ATS (Underdog): 8-3
CIN O/U: 12-8 to the UNDER
LA O/U: 10-9-1 to the OVER
CIN O/U (Road): 8-2 to the UNDER
LA O/U (Home): 6-4 to the UNDER
Team Stats for Super Bowl 56 – Rams vs. Bengals
Points Per Game
CIN: 26.6 (8th)
LA: 27.2 (6th)
Points Allowed Per Game
CIN: 21.8 (13th)
LA: 21.4 (10th)
Plays Per Game
CIN: 61.9 (22nd)
LA: 63.1 (16th)
Plays Allowed Per Game
CIN: 63.3 (17th)
LA: 64.7 (23rd)
Offensive Yards Per Drive
CIN: 33.31 (17th)
LA: 37.49 (4th)
Offensive Points Per Drive
CIN: 2.40 (12th)
LA: 2.68 (4th)
Defensive Yards Per Drive
CIN: 30.59 (5th)
LA: 32.73 (17th)
Defensive Points Per Drive
CIN: 1.88 (7th)
LA: 1.91 (8th)
Opening Odds for Super Bowl 56
Opening Spread: LAR -3.5
Opening Moneyline: CIN +170
Opening Total: 49.5
Current Odds
Spread: LAR -3.5 (-110, Caesars) CIN +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
As always, be sure to shop around for the best number.
Moneyline: LA (-165), CIN (+150)
Over/Under: 48.5
Implied Team Totals
CIN: 22.5 (-106)
CIN went over this number in 13-of-19 (throwing out Week 18)
LA: 26.5 (-105)
LA went over this number in 12-of-20
Super Bowl 56 Betting Picks
Sides and Totals
These are all posted at FTN Bets, and I will continue to add to it as more lines are released.
- Side: Subscribe with promo code MAGIC
- Totals: FREE PLAY Caesars has the CIN team total (ALT LINE) at 21 points (-130, 1u). Hit the OVER.
Free Play
Pace, Playcalling and Trends
- Favorites are 36-19 in the Super Bowl, but with TB beating KC last year, seven of the last 10 underdogs have covered.
- The 2016 New England Patriots and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers are the only two teams in the last 17 years who had a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game, a trend that held up last season when TB (11-5) beat KC (14-2).
- CIN has kept it close this season (fourth-most plays in neutral) and has excelled in tough matchups. They are 7-2 against playoff teams this season, with both losses coming in overtime (GB & SF).
- LA is 5-5 against playoff teams this season. Four of their past five games have been decided by a field goal or less.
- Three of the past four games for CIN (excluding Week 18) have also been decided by 3 points or fewer.
- Three straight Super Bowls have gone UNDER.
- LA has passed on 60.1% of plays this season (7th) and 57% in the playoffs (11th of 14 teams). That stat is misleading, however. LA cruised against AZ and only passed 17 times (31%). It went back up to 63.04% against TB and SF which is what I expect here as a floor.
- CIN has passed at a 63.4% pass rate in the playoffs after 59% in the regular season.
- Both teams have moved slowly, around 30 seconds per play in the playoffs after finishing 17th (LA) and 29th in neutral pace this season.
- LA passed at a 74.66% rate when down by 8+ points. If CIN can get a two-score lead, look for Stafford to air it out and speed it up (23 sec. per play).
- CIN has improved on pass defense, they were seventh in pass DVOA over their last 8 games after being 24th (first 9). The Rams are the opposite, third to start the season and 16th to finish it.
- CIN drove us crazy in KC, running on 17-of-29 first downs. I think it was to protect Burrow and this poor pass-blocking line (31st adjusted sack rate), but all it did was force him to convert high-pressure third downs (8-of-14 against the Chiefs). That is not an optimal strategy against LA, with the Rams holding their opponents to an 18.75% 3rd down conversion rate in the playoffs (1st).
- Only three teams finished with a YPA over 8 this season, CIN, LA, and SF.
- LA had the highest percentage of their TDs come via the pass (80.33%) while allowing the lowest percentage of their TDs via the pass (43.4%).
Prop Bets
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow has a prop of 273.5 passing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook. Both of our models like Burrow to fly over this number. Jeff Ratcliffe’s model has been so consistent all season, which led to him winning the FantasyPros’ No. 1 ranker title, so I am tailing it again.
Here is a reminder that both Jeff and Kyle Murray also have high-end NBA models that have taken years to perfect. To get both for just $50 a month is a ridiculous value, it would take you thousands of dollars to build and maintain NBA models that are tied to an API, updating constantly as news changes.
Check out Kyle’s NBA projections
Check out Jeff’s NBA PrizePicks tool
Kyle’s model helped him take down a FanDuel live final ($250k). The two have combined for +80 units this NBA season (+156u since FTN Bets launched on 7.7.20).
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Free Play
Opposing QBs have reached 300-plus yards seven times against both CIN and LA (including the playoffs). Burrow OVER 300 passing yards (+150) and Stafford OVER 300 passing yards (+140) are fun (correlated) props if you think this is going to shoot out. Bet them both in a SGP and hope for fireworks.
Matthew Stafford
I am tailing the TD prop king, Gilles Gallant, here with Mathew Stafford To Throw Interception (-130).
Per Gilles, “After throwing another interception vs. the 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship, Stafford still has gunslinger tendencies that can be exposed. He finished the regular season tied with the most interceptions by a quarterback with 17…You should also consider Joe Burrow to throw an interception as well at -120 if Stafford’s odds scare you away because even as great as ‘Joe Cool’ has been this postseason, he’s thrown a pick in back-to-back games. Long live the interception prop!”
Doubling down on Gilles, I like (prefer) the Burrow to throw a INT prop. LAR has 11 INTs in their last 8-games. Burrow has thrown an INT in his last two and has 9 INTs in 9 road games (16 in 20 overall).
Rams RBs
CIN was a great matchup for pass-catching backs, allowing 8.2 targets per game, but with Darrell Henderson on track to return after seeing a “healthy share” of practice reps with the first team.
Per FTNData, Sony Michel ran just 11 routes (out of 13 pass snaps) against TB in the Divisional Round, compared to 24-of-29 for Cam Akers. However, in the Conference Championship game, it was Michel who dominated the routes (29-of-33, 2 targets) while Akers saw 15-of-16 (1 target). With Henderson (9.3% target share) also in the mix, I will be fading the (very tempting and popular) Cam Akers OVER 2.5 receptions prop (+140).
I also think Akers’ rush attempts prop is a bit high given the crowded backfield, a shoulder injury that has kept him from practicing in full, and CIN holding their opponents to a low rush rate (5th fewest carries allowed). I have him at 14 carries for 53 yards making the UNDER 16.5 rush attempts (-110) prop a solid play (BetMGM).
I won’t bet it, but Akers or whoever gets the carries should have success against this (recently) struggling Bengals rush D. Per FTN Data, they have allowed a playoff high 3.46 yards after contact per carry.
Joe Mixon
LAR has been tough against opposing rushers. They have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 4 and only one back to go over 80 yards since that game (Elijah Mitchell, two times). They have allowed just 54 rush yards over their last three games and had the second-ranked rush D (per DVOA) from weeks 10-17. I am not posting it, but lean UNDER on his scrimmage yards prop (UNDER 93.5, -110 at Ceasars).
Mixon has averaged 5.2 receptions p/g over his last 5. LA is 24th in DVOA against RBs, allowing 5 receptions p/g this season and over 5 per game in the playoffs thanks to a 9-catch performance from Leonard Fournette. It is juiced up as high as -140 at some outlets, but Caesars still has it at -115.
Receiving Props
Odell Beckham’s props have been underpriced since he came to LA. This week they are tighter, at 5.5 receptions (+115) and 63.5 receiving yards, but I still think they offer decent value. He has seen 22%, 22%, & 25% of team targets in their 3 playoff games which produced 15 receptions on 22 targets (last two games). With Tyler Higbee doubtful, Van Jefferson banged up, and Ben Skowronek unable to catch wide-open passes, OBJ should be very busy again. He has also benefited from playing alongside Cooper Kupp, who is getting double covered regularly.
I have three OBJ props posted, here is one FREE PLAY.
Longest Reception OVER 22.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel
CIN allowed the third-most 20-yard receptions this season. OBJ has a 23-yard catch in two of three playoff games with a 20-yard reception in the other.
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A couple more FREE PLAYS I like quite a bit (care of Gilles Gallant) are Tee Higgins ANY TD +175 and Tee Higgins OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110).
Per Gilles, “In the last two playoff games, Higgins has 199 yards receiving on 13 catches and 19 targets…In the Bengals’ last four losses, the Bengals WR has averaged at least 106 yards receiving in those outings.”
Kicking Props
Per the FTN kicking prop guru, Matthew Freedman, there is kicking value on the board. He has 4 kicking props including this FREE BET, Bengals OVER 1.5 Field Goals (-120).
Per Matt, “In the regular season, the Bengals were top-10 in field goals attempted (2.0 per game), and in 10 games since the Week 10 bye, (Evan) McPherson has attempted 3.1 field goals per game. In the postseason, McPherson has had four attempts in each game. HC Zac Taylor is more than fine taking the points.”
For my favorite kicking prop, you need to be a subscriber, though I do have two FREE KICKING PROPS.
Shortest Made Field Goal Yardage In-Game OVER 27.5 yards (-110)
My thought is they are going to try to score TDs once inside the 10-yard line (0.50 Units)
Total Yardage of All Made FG OVER 124.5 yards (-115)
Evan McPherson has 12 combined 50-plus-yard field goals (including playoffs). He set the NFL record for most combined regular season and postseason 50+ yard field goals made by one player in a single season.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Super Bowl LVI MVP Odds
30-of-55 MVP awards have gone to a QB, with Tom Brady claiming five. Other players with multiple MVPs include QBs Eli Manning, Bart Starr and Terry Bradshaw with two, and Joe Montana with three.
MVP hedge strategy (assuming 1 unit equals $100)
Kupp wins +700 (.5u, $50 to win $400 – 1.5u = +2.5u) Burrow wins +230 (.5u, $50 to win $165 – $150 = +.15u) Stafford wins +120 (1u $100 to win $125 – $100 = .25u)
NONE = -2u. This is the downside, that someone else wins, but the math implies we have a 95% chance to win the minimum +.25u (5% chance to lose -2u).
A defensive player has won 4 times in the last 26 games, Miller being the last in 2016 with the Broncos
I don’t mess around with these ultra-long shots, but Boyd has led the team in receiving yards four times and has scored 6 TDs, so he looks like the best option if you are looking to cash a lotto ticket. If he catches a couple of TDs while Burrow has a down game overall with an INT (or two), it is at least conceivable.
The man has been pure money, if he nails 4-5 FGs and CIN holds LA in check, it could happen. Though the thought of a kicker winning the MVP is nauseating so I can’t bet/root for this.
Last time ICYMI, PROMO CODE “MAGIC” for 20%. This can be used on FTNBets, FTNDaily, & FTNFantasy (links to checkout pages).
Enjoy the game and thanks for reading the Breakdown!
