Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the 2020 MagicSportsGuide. This is a quick reference guide meant for those that are preparing for their betting/DFS season. As always, my focus is on systems, pace and play-calling, in addition to player evaluation. No sport is more reliant on coaching, with schemes and decisions made by guys in booths, who decide whether or not your player gets usage or not. Having this fundamental understanding is critical for attacking DFS/betting, and even more so in Week 1, when everyone else feels like “there is not enough information”. I have had a lot of success in the first week of the year, including a $100,000+ hit in 2017, making me confident in this process.
One new wrinkle to this guide and my overall process is the addition of Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s coaching staff breakdowns. One of the benefits of starting your own fantasy site (or two), is bringing on sharp guys like DB and AA. This series was a “custom order” from yours truly, who had a very busy summer working with the team to get FTN off the ground. I have read and re-read those coaching/systems breakdowns (DB with the analysis, AA with the data), two times for each team, as that information is everything for fantasy and Week 1 prep.
2019 record: 5-11 | 2020 projection: 5-11
Head coach: Matt Rhule (First season)
Offensive coordinator: Joe Brady (First season)
Defensive coordinator: Eric Washington (First season)
Play Calling/System/Coaching breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 7: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Round 2, pick 38: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
Round 2, pick 64: Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois
Round 4, pick 113: Troy Pride Jr., CB, Notre Dame
Round 5, pick 152: Kenny Robinson, CB, West Virginia
Round 6, pick 184: Bravvion Roy, DL, Baylor
Round 7, pick 221: Stantley Thomas-Oliver III, CB, Florida International
Offensive additions
QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB PJ Walker (XFL), WR Robby Anderson, WR Seth Roberts, TE Seth DeValve, OT Russell Okung, G Michael Schofield, G John Miller
Defensive Additions
DE Stephen Weatherly, DT Zach Kerr, LB Tahir Whitehead, CB Eli Apple, S Juston Burris.
Offseason Losses
QB Cam Newton, QB Kyle Allen, TE Greg Olsen, OT Daryl Williams, G Trai Turner, LB, Luke Kuechly (retired), DE Mario Addison, DT Gerald McCoy, DE/OLB Bruce Irvin, CB James Bradberry, CB Ross Cockrell, CB Javien Elliott, S Eric Reid, CB James Bradberry, DT Vernon Butler
Schedule
Week 2 – @TB (+9.5)
Week 3 – @LAC (+5.5)
Week 4 – @AZ (+1.5)
Week 5 – @ATL (+5.5)
Week 6 – CHI (+3)
Week 7 – @NO (+12)
Week 8 – ATL(+1.5)
Week 9 – @KC (+14)
Week 10 – TB (+5)
Week 11 – DET (N/A)
Week 12 – @MIN (+7)
Week 13 – BYE (Week 13)
Week 14 – DEN (+1.5)
Week 15 – @GB (+9)
Week 16 – @WASH (pk)
Week 17 – NO (+8)
CAR is an underdog in every game this season, minus WASH in Week 16, a pick-em. They are 7+ TD dogs in six games. McCaffrey averaged 10.75 targets p/g when the Panthers were 6+ point underdogs. (8.33 targets p/g outside the split). His rush attempts go down by 2.83 p/g when a 6+ point dog.
Week 1
+1.5 vs LV Raiders (Logos), O/U 47 (-110)
Implied Team Totals: LV 24 | CAR 23
One angle I am attacking is new faces in new places against established offensive systems. This game checks that box, as no team has gone through a bigger overhaul in terms of players (nine defensive starters), systems, coaches this offseason than CAR. People are attacking the Raiders as a “road” dog. I use quotations because, without fans in the stands, I am not sure how much home-field advantage matters. That will be one fascinating aspect of this season. Is Seattle still a “tough place to play” without the 12th man? We shall see, but my guess is the lack of crowd noise will make things easier for opposing offenses. I will not be following the Raiders backers, CAR has way too much talent on offense for me to endorse a Raiders defense that finished 30th in pass DVOA and 27th in adjusted sack rate.
The public is POUNDING the OVER at a 90% rate. With a low volume of bets coming in this year, I would not put too much stock in this data, if any. That said, I agree this number is too low and will likely end up at 48 to 49 by kickoff.
Defense
Carolina invested all of its 2020 draft-picks on defense, but it’s not going to help this season. Rookies have a natural learning curve in terms of play and conditioning in a normal season, but with COVID-19, it will be even more extreme. Derrick Brown is already banged up, and the Panthers are already looking to trades to bolster what should be one of, if not, the worst secondary in football. Donte Jackson has the name brand coming out of LSU in the second round in 2018, but he has been #NotGood, allowing 2.43 and 2.3 fantasy points per target (FPPT) and ranking 75th or lower in yards per target (YPT) and yards per reception (YPR) allowed. James Bradberry was top-12 in FPPT and will be missed, especially with Eli Apple taking over, who allowed a 120 passer rating in coverage.
They drafted Brown and Yetur Gross-Matos to go along with the veteran Kawann Short and last year’s first-round pick, DE Brian Burns upfront. The one thing CAR did well last year on D was rush the passer, finishing 3rd in adjusted sack rate. As listed above, they lost Addison, Irvin Butler. Brown and Gross-Matos should be a long term upgrade, but I expect them to fall back a but from 2019. This is a new system, but they were SO BAD last year against the run (32nd in RB yards allowed per carry) that there is slim-to-zero chance a new HC, coordinator and bunch of young players is going to turn around a unit that gave up 29.4 PPG (36.4, last three), and the most FPPG to RBs in 2019. Wheels up for Josh Jacobs in Week 1.
Luke Kuechly was not the HOF caliber player last season, but he will be sorely missed as arguably the best ILB of the 2010s. Shaq Thompson is serviceable but has seen a steady decline in pass coverage. Speaking of pass coverage, CAR replaced Kuechly with Tahir Whitehead, who finished near the bottom in PFFs coverage rating for the Raiders last season. This is going to be a bad unit.
Offense
With a bad defense that’s playing in a high-powered conference with three QBs likely headed for Canton, this offense is going to get a ton of opportunity, which makes them VERY fantasy-friendly. In addition to the expected volume, they are LOADED with playmakers and now have a QB that complements their skill sets along with the scheme.
Teddy Bridgewater joins Joe Brady, who were together in New Orleans while Brady was an offensive assistant. Bridgewater finished fourth in QB accuracy last season and has always excelled in short/medium routes, which should help mitigate their opponents’ pass rush. If there is a gripe against Bridgewater, it is his efficiency under pressure, which is why I think this scheme in combo with this LOADED group of skilled position players sets up so well for him. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, and (of course) Christian McCaffrey is arguably top-3 as a collective group.
Speaking of Anderson, many are quick to dismiss him after an inconsistent and injury-riddled run with the Jets, but he is only 27 and has been good for 2-3 monster games a season while stuck in a terrible offense. Bridgewater was not asked to throw deep much last season, attempting only 1.7 per game compared to Drew Brees’ 3 per game. He did finish fourth in terms of deep-ball accuracy on those limited attempts. He was also good at play-action (75% completion rate, second), which sets up well with CMC demanding so much attention. Anderson is the exact WR I load up on in those mid-late rounds, as I am looking for 2-4 “ceiling” games at that point of the draft.
I can’t get enough exposure to these guys in best ball at their ADPs. Bridgewater, Samuel, Anderson and Thomas are all going pick 120 and later, with Thomas being the cheapest of them all at 156 (UnderDog). They make a great “second stack” that won’t make you sacrifice on value early.
Bets
D.J. Moore OVER 1050 yards (-110): Moore is an FTN favorite and THE value “WR1” to draft after you stash two top-RBs in your fantasy drafts. He was terrific last year, averaging 83.8 yards per game after pulling out the Indianapolis game where he got hurt on the first series. Looking closer, he left a ton of production on the field due to poor QB play. Moore was 69th in target quality rating and 74th in catchable target rate while finishing 19th in “true catch” rate, which looks at the percentage of accurate or “catchable” balls he converted. Getting an accurate arm in Brady’s system should improve those accuracy metrics, which (health provided) will lead to Moore being a top-5 WR this season.
Bridgewater OVER 18.5 TDs (-110)
CAR UNDER 6 Wins (-134)
CAR UNDER 5.5 Wins (+105)
Camp Notes/Updates
- Linebacker Shaq Thompson did not practice Friday because his groin is still sore. Rhule said Thompson has an abductor issue.
- Carolina added UDFA cornerback Jameson Houston and defensive end Austin Larkin shortly before practice. Houston is a Baylor product, so he’s familiar with this coaching staff.
- And with defensive end Marquis Haynes in the concussion protocol, the Panthers wanted to get a look at Larkin, who’s spent time with the Cowboys and Falcons.
- Panthers have been calling teams looking for secondary help, per Joe Person.
- Eli Apple has a banged-up hamstring, which along with the rookies developing slowly, has CAR out looking for secondary help.
- Mike Davis is getting hyped up in camp as the new CMC backup, pushing Reggie Bonnafon down the depth chart. This is fairly big news if you are looking to insure your No. 1 pick with his handcuff. Davis is JAG, but Bonnafon is a UDFA. My guess is it would be a 70/30 or 60/40 split, so thinking you are getting CMC “lite” is hilarious. Davis would be a serviceable RB2, but if CMC goes down (knocks on wood), this entire offense is in deep shit.
