Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Schedule analysis is an interesting pool to dip your toe in for fantasy football with this much time before the NFL season kicks off, but that’s not to say it doesn’t have its place. The areas that we can look to attack to find edges in early best ball and redraft leagues are at the margins and going deeper than the average fantasy gamer that you’ll be drafting against. When peering at schedules during this part of the fantasy football calendar year, we want to highlight upcoming matchups against teams that were exceptionally bad at defending (bottom 5-10) the rush or pass.
To do so, we’ll discuss targeting various passing and rushing attacks with favorable schedules. How they fared in explosive play rates allowed and open field yards allowed per Sharp Football Stats and Football Outsiders. We always discuss “ceiling outcomes” and “spike weeks” when talking about which players and teams are set up nicely for the 2021 season to enjoy those week winning performances.
Fantasy Football – Passing Schedules to Target
Baltimore Ravens – Easiest projected schedule
Lamar Jackson and his new abundance of passing weapons are set to take a step forward. With a schedule featuring six games with teams (DET, MIN, CIN twice, MIA, DEN) that finished in the bottom five in explosive passing rates allowed, the Ravens are set to fly high this year. Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman are all values in best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy.
Arizona Cardinals – Second easiest projected schedule
Kliff Kingsbury’s aerial attack will face off against Jacksonville, Houston, Detroit, Indianapolis and Dallas, who all finished 21st or lower in explosive pass rates allowed in 2020. The Cardinals are a prime regression candidate after ranking 23rd in explosive pass rate last season. Kyler Murray now has Rondale Moore added to his stable of explosive weapons, so the needle is pointing up.
San Francisco 49ers – Third easiest projected schedule
Kyle Shanahan knows how to direct a big-play offense. Even with the injury bug biting hard last year, the 49ers still finished 11th in explosive pass rate. If they are healthy this year, a return to the top spot they enjoyed in explosive passes in 2019 isn’t out of the question. The cakewalk that San Francisco enjoys in Weeks 14-17 (CIN, ATL, TEN, HOU) is the type of stretch that leads to fantasy championships.
Los Angeles Chargers – Fifth easiest projected schedule
Justin Herbert has a chance to build upon his fantastic rookie season and step into the elite this year with his schedule. The Chargers face six teams (KC twice, DAL, DEN, MIN, CIN, HOU, DEN) that ranked 23 or lower in explosive pass rate allowed. Piling two games against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders on top of this mountain of gold makes this schedule shimmer blinding. The Chargers ranked 14th in explosive pass rate last year, but a full season of healthy Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams should allow them to eclipse that easily.
Los Angeles Rams – 11th easiest projected schedule
The Rams schedule can be even better than this early ranking suggests, with Seattle (twice), Chicago, Arizona, Detroit, Jacksonville and Houston all on the docket. Without the tutelage of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford directed passing offenses that ranked first and 10th in explosive pass rate when he was on the field over the last two seasons. Stafford is primed for a career-best year in Los Angeles.
Dark Horse Candidate
Chicago Bears – Ninth easiest projected schedule
The sooner that Justin Fields takes over under center, the better. Fields’ abilities as a downfield passer could elevate the Bears’ passing attack to new heights. Chicago’s schedule is soft, with dates in Cincinnati, Detroit, Las Vegas, Arizona, and a Seattle and New York Giants pairing in Weeks 16-17.
Fantasy Football – Rushing Schedules to Target
Cleveland Browns – Easiest projected schedule
Nick Chubb will have the opportunity to post ludicrous rushing numbers this season. Chubb ranked third in breakaway run rate last year and reprises his role as the early-down hammer versus a Swiss cheese schedule. The Browns will face seven teams (HOU, CIN twice, LVR, DEN, BAL twice) that ranked 25th or lower in open field yards allowed.
Kansas City Chiefs – Second easiest projected schedule
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is ready to run wild against this 17-game slate. The monster stat lines are incoming with games against Las Vegas (twice), Buffalo, Dallas and Cincinnati (Week 17). Patrick Mahomes will keep defenses honest and the boxes light for Edwards-Helaire to churn out the yards and long runs.
New England Patriots – Third easiest projected schedule
The Patriots will grind out big weeks on the ground behind a top-three offensive line. Damien Harris is a fine target if you’re willing to push the button at his current ADP, but Cam Newton and Rhamondre Stevenson could easily outproduce him on the ground to crush their late ADPs. New England will face off against the soft fronts in Jacksonville, Houston, Dallas, Buffalo (twice) and the New York Jets (twice).
Miami Dolphins – Fourth easiest projected schedule
Myles Gaskin’s mouth should be watering looking at his upcoming slate of games. The Dolphins will face the Bills (twice), Las Vegas, the Jets, Jacksonville and Houston. If this isn’t enough Gaskin will also break off long runs against Carolina and Tennessee, who ranked 27th and 29th in open field yards allowed last year.
Denver Broncos – Sixth easiest projected schedule
Javonte Williams will leave fantasy gamers hoisting trophies and counting their league winnings early with his end-of-the-season schedule. In Weeks 13-17, the Broncos will take on the Chargers (twice), Chiefs, Lions, Bengals and Raiders. Every team except the Lions ranked 20th or worse in open field yards allowed in 2020.
Dark Horse Candidate
Pittsburgh Steelers – Fifth easiest projected schedule
Yes, I know the Steelers offensive line has been discussed as a major concern for Najee Harris, but what hasn’t been discussed is the immaculate schedule that awaits. Harris should get off to a hot start against the Bills, Raiders, and Bengals in his first three weeks. His stretch run schedule also looks promising with the Bears, Lions and Bengals in Weeks 9-12.
