Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
I’ve shared my thoughts on how to handle the current wide receiver landscape in best ball drafts and the importance of prioritizing the position early and often. Ideally, I want to come away with at least one wide receiver in the first two rounds, often double-tapping the position with my first two picks. That isn’t to say that you can’t take two running backs at the start of your draft, but getting boxed out of the high-end receivers is usually not the optimal way to build, and a lot more difficult to make up relative to other positions.
With that said, you still need to start at least three receivers each week, and preferably a fourth in your flex. In this article, I’m going to break down a few mid- to late-round receivers available beyond the first seven rounds that work for nearly every build.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 90.1, WR49
Curtis Samuel was reunited with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady this offseason, joining a Bills offense with a wide-open depth chart at wide receiver. The departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (and others) leaves the team with 173 vacated targets and 1,369 receiving yards, both trailing only the Chargers for the second-highest marks in the league. Entering 2024, there isn’t a single wide receiver after Khalil Shakir, who has caught a single pass from Josh Allen, and Shakir opened the season as the fourth wide receiver, playing less than 40% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in each of the first seven games. Samuel easily has the best track record among the receiving corps, topping 650 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns in four consecutive seasons (min. 5 games) with two different teams. The last time Samuel played in a Brady offense was back in 2020 with Carolina, setting career-highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (851) in just 15 games, earning a target on 21% of his routes with 19% target share when active. He also saw his best usage as a rusher, handling 41 carries for 200 yards and two touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per attempt (4.9). He should continue to see schemed-up touches as both a receiver and a rusher without a lot of depth behind James Cook. When asked about Samuel’s role this upcoming season, Brady said, “He can play any of the positions — play inside, play outside, play in the backfield… The more Curtis Samuels on our football team, the better.”
Samuel has often been pegged as just a slot receiver but has actually been better lined up on the outside, which is critical when considering the Bills ran out of 12 personal or two tight ends set at the third highest rate in the league with both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox active (26.2%).
Another 1,000-yard season is well within the range of outcomes for Samuel, tied to Allen and the Bills offense that ranked third overall in DVOA (20.1) and passing DVOA (40.6%).
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 103.6, WR52
Former undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed recently signed an extension to stay in New Orleans for at least one more year, set to take on a larger role this upcoming season.
Shaheed showed flashes as a rookie, putting it together as a near-full-time player in year two, catching 46 passes on 75 targets, trailing only Chris Olave on the Saints with 719 receiving yards, tied for first on the team with five receiving touchdowns despite missing two games. Entering 2024, Shaheed has even less competition for targets, with the Saints declining to bring back Michael Thomas, who quietly had a 20% target share in nine healthy games last season. In six games with Thomas out or playing no more than two snaps, Shaheed’s target share rose from 13% to 16% from Week 10 on, drawing a target on 20% of his routes during that span. It’s fair to assume Shaheed will see a significant uptick in volume this upcoming season, with a lot of question marks outside of Olave at receiver who was placed on the NFI list earlier this week. Starting tight end, Juwan Johnson is also set to miss the start of training camp, getting placed on the PUP list with a foot injury. Johnson appeared in just 13 games last season, missing four weeks with a calf injury, but still finished right behind Thomas for fifth on the team in targets (59), reception (37) and receiving yards (368), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (4). Shaheed is poised for a third-year breakout, already one of the best downfield receivers since entering the league, leading the NFL with 11.1 yards per target among all players to see 100-plus targets over the last two seasons.
Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
ADP: 134.8, WR64
Ja’Lynn Polk was the second player drafted by the Patriots in the post-Bill Belichick era, coming off the board on Day Two at pick No. 37 overall. The landing spot may not seem great on paper, playing in an offense led by either a journey-men backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissett or the first-round rookie, Drake Maye with no NFL experience. However, Polk has a unique opportunity to immediately lead his team in receiving year one, entering a wide-open depth chart. He’s already been turning heads this offseason, starting to separate from the pack.
Polk was overshadowed by college teammate Rome Odunze in the draft process, but he is coming off a monster season of his own, catching 69 passes for 1,159 yards and 9 touchdowns despite also playing alongside another NFL talent and eventual third-round pick in Jalen McMillan. Even at the next level, Polk’s level of competition is much softer, with former sixth-round receiver Demario Douglas likely posing the biggest threat for targets, after leading the Patriots in receiving as a rookie, despite catching less than 50 passes (49), for 561 yards and no touchdowns in 2023.
Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
ADP: 168.6, WR74
Demarcus Robinson’s one-year extension to return to Los Angeles, likely solidifies his role as third wide receiver in Sean McVay’s offense, taking over the job in Week 12 and never looking back. Robinson rarely ever left the field to close the season, running a route on over 90% of Matthew Stafford dropbacks in each of the Rams’ last five games with all the starters active, including the playoffs. Even while sharing the field with alpha wide receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Robinson still got his, showing an impressive ability to draw targets that we hadn’t seen up to this point in his career. In the last four games of the regular season, excluding Week 18 with most of the team resting, Robinson saw a 20% target share, seeing almost seven targets per game (6.8), averaging 4.2 receptions, 63.8 receiving yards, 0.8 touchdowns and 13.7 half-PPR points target during that span.
