Kansas City Chiefs DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings

Off Saturday's injury report, Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) proved in 2023 that his 2022 second-half surge was no fluke, taking a stranglehold on K.C.'s lead-back duties. Showing multi-dimensionality in his second year, Pacheco more than tripled his catch output from a year ago by pulling in 44 of his 49 targets. The hard-running 24-year-old ranked as a rock-solid RB2 throughout the season, placing as the RB14 in fantasy points per game (15.3), and he's heading into the postseason wild-card battle with the Miami Dolphins with a ton of steam. Pacheco is averaging 82.0 rushing yards on 16.2 carries with five total touchdowns over his last five outings, adding 4.0 catches for 16.8 yards per game. Miami is yielding the fourth-fewest opponent yards per carry (3.8), but the Chiefs could lean on Pacheco, who is an exciting DFS play, with strong winds and below-freezing temperatures in the forecast at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce fell just shy of his eighth straight 1,000-yard year, bookending his season with missed games, but he still closed as the overall TE1 in PPR fantasy points per game (14.1). The 34-year-old nine-time Pro Bowler pushed for a career year initially but slowed down in his final nine games, averaging 5.0 catches (6.9 targets) for 51.0 yards with just one total touchdown. DFS players paying up for Kelce in Saturday's wild-card tilt versus the Miami Dolphins will hang their hats on his spectacular averages of 7.4 catches for 86.0 yards with sixteen total scores across 18 lifetime postseason games. Miami shut Kelce down for his season low with 14 yards in Week 9's matchup, but the Fins have been gashed for 167 yards and four TDs by opposing TEs in the past two weeks. Due to forecasted below-freezing temperatures and blustery winds, however, Kelce carries some added risk under these conditions.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ended 2023 with his fewest average fantasy points (18.4) ever, closing as the QB10 in per-game scoring. While a 67.2% completion rate and 389 rushing yards signify career highs for Mahomes, his latest nine games show a dismal 85.7 passer rating and 12:8 TD:INT. The 28-year-old six-time Pro Bowler starts his sixth career postseason on Saturday for wild-card action versus the Miami Dolphins, and DFS players betting on Mahomes finally shifting into high gear will bank on his stellar 291.7 passing yards per game, 107.4 passer rating, and 35:7 TD:INT over 14 lifetime playoff contests. The Fins held Mahomes to his second-fewest pass yards in a game (185) this year in Week 9, but Miami's defense allowed the seventh-most passing TDs (27) in 2023. With sub-zero temperatures and gusty winds in the forecast, Mahomes' expectations need to be tempered as a low-end QB1.

Regardless of how the Kansas City Chiefs perform in the playoffs, tight end Travis Kelce expects to be back with the team in 2024. "I have no reason to stop playing football, man," the 11-year veteran and future Hall of Famer said. "I love it, we still have success and I come in with the right mindset. I just love the challenge it gives me every single day to try to be at my best. I have no desire to stop anytime soon." Kelce is the team's longest-tenured player, but he's played through injuries in 2023 and has seen a slight dip in production while also dealing with the hoopla of starting a relationship with pop superstar Taylor Swift. The 34-year-old has scored just one touchdown in the past nine games and has been slowed down with extra defenders covering him. But he still finished the regular season with 93 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns to finish as the TE2 in fantasy, and Kelce will remain a high-end fantasy tight end for playoff leagues.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (ankle, hip) and Justyn Ross (hamstring) were both listed as questionable for Saturday's wild-card playoff game against the visiting Miami Dolphins. Toney was limited in practice all week, while Ross was limited on Wednesday and Thursday. With rookie Rashee Rice (hamstring) returning this weekend, it's hard to get behind any of KC's other pass-catchers despite an excellent matchup against the banged-up Dolphins defense. Toney missed the team's last three regular season games. He's trending up toward a return to face Miami, but we'd be surprised if the oft-injured Toney was a big part of the Chiefs' offense in this one. If active, the 24-year-old Ross probably won't see the field all that much. He had only six receptions for 53 yards and no scores in 10 games in 2023.