NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Justin Jefferson is off to a historic start to his NFL career, and he isn’t expected to slow down anytime soon. The Minnesota Vikings’ receiver is the betting favorite to lead the league in receiving yards for the 2022 season.
Jefferson’s 2022 prop bets include an over/under of 1,350.5 receiving yards and 8.5 touchdowns at FanDuel Sportsbook. The 23-year-old finished second in the 2021 season with 1,616 yards to go along with 10 scores.
Not only has Jefferson led the NFL in receiving yards since 2020, but his 3,016 yards are the most all-time for a receiver in his first two career seasons. Jefferson’s been so impressive that he’s projected to put up better numbers than reigning receiving leader Cooper Kupp, who nearly set the single-season record last year.
In a best-case scenario, Jefferson can have the kind of impact in Minnesota that Kupp did with the Los Angeles Rams. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has said that he plans to use Jefferson in a similar fashion to the way that he utilized Kupp as the Rams offensive coordinator in 2021.
It doesn’t hurt that Jefferson receives passes from one of the NFL’s most consistent quarterbacks. For all of the criticism Kirk Cousins receives, he’s finished with a passer rating north of 103.0 in each of the last three seasons.
The bar has been set incredibly high for Jefferson in 2022. What are the odds that he’ll exceed those lofty expectations?
Let’s take a look at the odds for Jefferson’s receiving totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.
Justin Jefferson Prop Bets for 2022
Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.
How Many Receiving Yards Will Justin Jefferson Have In 2022?
Over 1,350.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel is the best place to bet Jefferson props since DraftKings and BetMGM offer -115 odds on both the over and the under for the same receiving total. Betting the over comes with risks because the possibility of an injury that costs Jefferson a few games could keep him under the total, even during an All-Pro campaign. Jefferson has played in every game dating back to his sophomore year at LSU. Cousins hasn’t missed a single game due to injury since he became a full-time starting quarterback in 2015.
There’s little reason to believe Jefferson won’t remain healthy in 2022 and continue to be one of the league’s elite receivers. Jefferson had 108 catches and 15.0 yards per reception in 2021. None of the other 18 players who had at least 82 receptions even averaged 13.5 yards per catch. Jefferson should get plenty of chances for big plays after receiving an NFL-high 29 deep targets, according to FTNData.
Five wide receivers went over 1,350.5 yards last season, and seven wide outs reached the equivalent in a 16-game season two years ago. Going over 1,350.5 yards would require Jefferson to average 79.47 yards over 17 games. The Vikings’ star is averaging 91.4 yards per game for his young career. If Jefferson is forced to miss two contests, he would still finish well above his 2022 prop total by meeting his career average.
How Many Touchdown Receptions Will Justin Jefferson Have In 2022?
Under 8.5 TDs (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jefferson can go over his receiving yards total and still go under his touchdown reception prop. Before finding the end zone 10 times in 2021, Jefferson only had seven touchdown catches as a rookie, despite reaching 1,400 yards. All three of the wide receivers who reached the 1,400-yard mark in 2020 failed to record more than eight touchdown receptions.
Adam Thielen is Cousins’ favorite red-zone target. Jefferson had double-digit touchdowns last year in part because Thielen missed four games with an ankle injury. Amid reports that Thielen looks like his old self in training camp, the veteran should return to being Minnesota’s touchdown leader. Thielen had 14 touchdowns in 15 games two seasons ago, and his 19 targets inside the 20-yard line were the third-most among wide receivers.
Tight end Irv Smith is back after missing all of last season and will get his share of opportunities to score. The same goes for K.J. Osborn, who caught seven touchdown passes in his second season. Even though Jefferson ranked fourth in total targets last season, 12 players received as many or more targets in the red zone.
How to Bet Justin Jefferson Props
Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.
Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, wide receivers are given a receiving yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.
Justin Jefferson’s regular-season receiving yards total, for example, is 1,350.5 yards. The over and the under both have -112 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.
A winning $112 bet on Jefferson to go over 1,350.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $212 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $112 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Jefferson’s over for receiving yards would come with an $89.29 profit.
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
