Justin Herbert 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

Following a historic start to his NFL career, Justin Herbert is projected to put up more impressive numbers in his third season. The Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback has the best odds to be the 2022 NFL leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Herbert has an over/under of 4,700.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2022 season. His prop bet for touchdowns is 36.5 scores.

In just his second season, Herbert finished above both of his lofty 2022 prop totals. Only Tom Brady had more than Herbert’s 5,014 passing yards in 2021. Herbert had 38 passing touchdowns, which ranked third in the NFL.

Herbert has the most passing yards and touchdowns by any quarterback in history through the first two seasons of his NFL career. Is he headed for an MVP campaign, or has the bar been set too high for the Chargers’ signal caller?

Let’s take a look at the odds for Herbert’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Justin Herbert Prop Bets for 2022

Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.

How Many Passing Yards Will Justin Herbert Have In 2022?

Under 4,700.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Herbert’s over/under is 4,600.5 yards at FanDuel Sportsbook and 4,649.5 yards at BetMGM, and both sportsbooks offer worse odds than DraftKings. Predicting Herbert to throw for fewer than 4,701 yards is the best bet because it offers the most value, though the quarterback certainly has what it takes to go well over his total. Herbert can be one of the NFL’s passing leaders and still manage to fall short of 4,701 yards.

If Herbert makes every start, he’ll need to average at least 276.6 passing yards per game in order to go over his total. Only a handful of quarterbacks are able to do that each year. Five quarterbacks threw for more than 4,700 yards last season. In each of the previous two seasons, four quarterbacks played every game and were on pace to surpass 4,700 yards over 17 contests. 

Too much can go wrong to cause Herbert to go under his passing yards total. The Chargers are odds-on favorites to make the playoffs. Herbert could rest in Week 18 if Los Angeles has a postseason berth wrapped up. If the Chargers are winning games comfortably, the ball could be taken out of Herbert’s hands in several fourth quarters. Missing just one game due to injury would mean having to throw for at least 293.8 yards per game, an average that only two quarterbacks have hit in each of the last two years. 

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Justin Herbert Throw In 2022?

Under 36.5 TDs (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

It will be even harder for Herbert to have 37 passing touchdowns than to throw for more than 4,700 yards. Herbert doesn’t have a track record of consistently hitting that total, making the over a risky bet. He only just went over 36.5 scores last season with 38 touchdowns. Herbert’s 31 touchdowns in 15 games as a rookie put him on pace to go under 36.5 touchdowns in a 17-game season.

The AFC West might feature a lot of shootouts, but the Chargers probably aren’t going to play as many high-scoring games as they did a season ago. Los Angeles was 23rd in yards allowed in 2021, and they surrendered at least 24 points in 11 games. The Chargers’ defense could be much better in 2022 with additions like J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack.

Herbert is already one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. He might be on his way toward joining the league’s top tier of players, but he hasn’t gotten there yet. Herbert still has more to prove with only 32 games under his belt and no playoff appearances. His 15 interceptions were tied for the second-most last year. A 35-touchdown season would mark a terrific achievement and still be a win for the under on Herbert’s TD prop. 

How to Bet Justin Herbert Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Justin Herbert’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 4,700.5 yards. The over and the under both have -110 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.

A winning $110 bet on Herbert to throw under 4,700.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $210 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $110 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Herbert’s under for passing yards would come with a $90.91 profit

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.