Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, we’ve been rolling up our sleeves and digging into all of the landing spots this past week. Every year we see players who get a boost in fantasy football value thanks to a favorable landing spot and vice versa. Throughout the predraft process, I had my eye on several players who stuck out for a variety of reasons. Fortunately, some of these guys landed in interesting spots.
These players aren’t necessarily the biggest names, but they are guys who I think can outplay expectations. So you aren’t going to see names like Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts or Trey Lance below. Obviously, I like these players and the rest of the top 10 names in this year’s class. However, this group of players is either right on the edge or well outside of that group. Here’s the 2021 rookie edition of My Guys.
Keep up with everything rookie related with the 2021 FTN Fantasy Rookie Scouting Guide.
Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers 2021
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
If there’s a better landing spot for Trey Sermon, I don’t know it. Sure, he steps into a cluttered 49ers depth chart that already has Raheem Mostert and Jeffery Wilson, but neither player was able to stay healthy last season. Sermon comes in with a somewhat thin college resume, but he flashed what he can do down the stretch for Ohio State. From a skill standpoint, he’s perfected suited to Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Sermon may not be the lead back in Week 1, but he’s a good bet to take over at some point in 2021.
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers
The LSU product fell in the draft due to some medical concerns that emerged in the predraft process, but don’t let his draft position cloud his fantasy football outlook. Terrace Marshall Jr. plays the game like a slightly faster Kenny Golladay crossed with his former college teammate Justin Jefferson. That profile is something the Panthers didn’t have in their wide receiver room, so there’s an opportunity for him to get on the field right away. Sure, he’ll be down in the target pecking order with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson along with Christian McCaffrey eating up the work, but Marshall will still be involved. More importantly, Anderson is a free agent next year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
While he may not be the top wide receiver prospect in this year’s class, Amon-Ra St. Brown did land in arguably the best spot of any wideout. Heading into the draft, the Lions had close to nothing on their depth chart at receiver. St. Brown will compete with a washed-up Tyrell Williams and a never-has-been in Rashad Perriman for work on the outside. He’s also versatile to work out of the slot, where Geronimo Allison was previously penciled in. He doesn’t have elite speed, but St. Brown has some dog in him after the catch.
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
Is this guy a three-down back in the NFL? Well, his size profile would say no. However, his game tape from last season suggests otherwise. It’s always tough to project out undersized backs to the next level. Guys like Duke Johnson and Giovani Bernard were pigeonholed as passing-down options, but Austin Ekeler has managed to be a bit more in terms of early-down work. Given this landing spot, Michael Carter has the chance to be more of an Ekeler type for the Jets. Now, that doesn’t mean 20 carries a game, but he can see 10-12 along with catching 4-5 balls. Given the other backs in the Jets’ backfield, that’s a completely reasonable expectation for Carter right out of the gate.
Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
We know Justin Herbert likes to push the ball downfield and take deep shots. Last year, he was throwing those balls primarily to Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. Both were serviceable in that role, but Josh Palmer offers a solid upgrade. The third-rounder out of Tennessee is reminiscent of former Vols wideout Marquez Callaway. But if Callaway was the rough draft, Palmer is the final copy. In the short term, Palmer figures to be a deep threat, but his role could expand if the Chargers decide to move on from Mike Williams when he hits free agency next year.
Jacob Harris, WR, Los Angeles Rams
It’s no secret the Rams lacked speed in their wide receiver room heading into the draft. They wisely addressed that issue with Jacob Harris and Louisville’s Tutu Atwell. Of the two, Harris is the more appealing option given his massive size (6-foot-5, 219) and impressive pro day speed (4.39 49-yard dash). While he enters the league very green having caught just 49 balls over the last two seasons, those intangibles are extremely appealing. He has the look of being this year’s Chase Claypool and should get an opportunity to get on the field with Matthew Stafford and company.
Kellen Mond, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Outside of the top five quarterbacks, Kellen Mond is the only draftable option for me in dynasty leagues. Barring a Kirk Cousins injury, he won’t be a starter this season. However, Cousins’ deal is up after next season, and the Vikings could potentially move on from him without a major cap hit following this season. That’s not to say Mond is definitively their future, but he’s the top candidate to be this year’s Dak Prescott type as a potential future starter who came from outside of Day 1 of the draft.
Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
I had to throw in an extremely deep option on the list. Noah Gray is a very good pass-catching tight end, but he does enter the NFL as a bit of a tweener option. He isn’t big enough to play inline and not quite dynamic enough to play move. However, he landed in a fantastic spot to grow and develop behind the greatest tight end in the history of fantasy football in Travis Kelce. Gray does not figure to surface as a fantasy option in the short-term, but Kelce isn’t getting any younger. This year will be his age-32 season, and he certainly can’t play forever. Gray is a sneaky name to watch as Kelce’s long-term replacement (think 3-5 years).
