Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re now just a few days away from the NFL Draft, so let’s dive into another mock draft. A lot has changed from when I did Mock Draft 3.0, so let’s put the pieces together based on what we’ve learned.
Of course, mock drafts are an exercise in futility, as it’s essentially impossible to get even remotely close to correct on all your picks. But the good news is that we now have ample betting odds in addition to intel from which players teams decided to bring in for top-30 visits. In this mock draft, let’s mess around with a few potential scenarios at the top of the board to see what sort of impact they have on the remainder of the first round.
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2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 — First Round
1. Chicago – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
He’s all but inked into this selection. Williams is currently -20000 to go first overall.
2. Washington – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The second pick gets much more interesting. As of now, the momentum seems to be in Daniels’ favor. He’s currently -155 to go to the Commanders in this spot.
3. NY Giants (trade with New England)– Drake Maye, QB, UNC
And we have a trade. The Giants make a move up the board, sending the 1.06 and next year’s first-round pick to get up to take Maye. Daniel Jones has no guaranteed money beyond this season, so there’s an out to get Maye in as a starter as early as the middle of the season if things don’t go well for Jones.
4. Minnesota (trade with Arizona) – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Back-to-back trades. The Vikings make a power move up the board to get their guy. Minnesota sends the 11th and next year’s first to get up to select McCarthy. Cardinals GM Monte Ossenfort was wheeling and dealing last year, so it wouldn’t be outlandish to see them move out of this pick.
5. LA Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Jim Harbaugh cleaned house at wide receiver, trading Keenan Allen and moving on from Mike Williams, so look for the Chargers to address the position with Harrison falling into their lap.
6. New England – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Patriots have a long-term need a quarterback, but it’s too early to take Michael Penix. It’s tough to pass on Nabers here.
7. Tennessee – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Offensive line is a major area of need for the Titans, especially at left tackle. Alt would fill that need as a plug-and-play starter. Alt is the clear favorite to be picked seventh at -140.
8. Atlanta – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Turner is athletic as they come and can get after the quarterback in a hurry. He’s currently the co-favorite to go eighth overall at +250.
9. Chicago – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears could go in several directions with this pick, but the betting odds favor Odunze in this spot. He’s currently +150 to go ninth overall. Odunze would give them a true X-receiver with a mouthwatering combination of height, weight, and speed.
10. NY Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Jets bring in some firepower for Aaron Rodgers. Bowers may not be the biggest tight end, but he’s elite nearly everywhere else. A dynamic threat in the passing game and a bulldog as a blocker, he has a two-way skillset reminiscent of George Kittle. He’s the favorite to go here are +155.
11. Arizona (trade with Minnesota) – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Cardinals add defensive talent with this pick. Latu’s draft arrow seems to be pointing up, with the odds suggesting he’s a top 15 pick. He’s currently -166 to go under pick 16.5.
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12. Denver – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
In Mock 3.0, I had Bo Nix here, but that seems very unlikely with Nix currently -230 to go over pick 32.5. So the Broncos pair up Pat Surtain with the top corner in this year’s calls.
13. Las Vegas – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
While the Raiders also have a need at quarterback, they’re favored to go offensive line in this spot at +140. Corner is currently second at +185, and quarterback is next at +340.
14. New Orleans – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Offensive line is a glaring weak spot for the Saints and the odds have them heavily favored to address that need in this spot. Offensive lineman is currently -400 for the Saints first drafted player.
15. Indianapolis – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts didn’t address corner in free agency, so expect them to hit the position in the draft. Corner is the favorite position for the Colts first player drafted at +115.
16. Seattle – Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
Mike Macdonald kicks off his head coaching tenure by adding the top interior defensive lineman in the class. The Seahawks are favored to go offensive line at -155, but defensive line isn’t far behind at +175.
17. Jacksonville – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Verse has become one of the trickiest players to mock. He isn’t the most polished player, but his high ceiling keeps him in this range of the first round. He’s currently -125 to go over pick 16.5.
18. Cincinnati – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
There’s nothing wrong with adding more protection for Joe Burrow, and the sportsbooks agree. The Bengals are currently -160 to use this pick on offensive line.
19. LA Rams – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
The Rams has needs along both their offensive and defensive lines, but they’re slightly favored to go o-line here at +130.
20. Pittsburgh – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Oh, hello. The Steelers grab the height/weight/speed prospect to fill Diontae Johnson’s shoes. Thomas is currently -166 to go over pick 19.5.
21. Miami – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
There’s a lot of talent at tackle in this year’s class, so the Dolphins get in on the mix. They’re heavily favored to go offensive line with their first pick at -190.
22. Philadelphia – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
It’s no secret that Philly has a need in their secondary. The Eagles consistently got roasted by opposing passing games in 2023. They get a much-needed upgrade to their cornerback room with the addition of the versatile DeJean. Philly is also favored to go corner at +135.
23. Minnesota – Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
The Vikings shore up their offensive interior with Barton, who is currently favored to go slightly earlier than this spot. He’s -122 to go under pick 20.5.
24. Dallas – Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon
The Cowboys have Tyler Smith and Zach Martin, but they’re thin elsewhere along the offensive line. Powers-Johnson gives them an upgrade at center to help the interior of their offensive line. Dallas is favored to go offensive line with this pick at -210.
25. Green Bay – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Packers are favored to go offensive line at -180, but corner isn’t far behind at +260.
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26. Tampa Bay – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
The Bucs get an explosive edge in the Penn State product. Besides Vita Vea, Tampa is extremely thin along the defensive line. It isn’t surprising that they’re favored to go edge with this pick at +185.
27. Arizona – AD Mitchell, WR, Texas
No, they didn’t land Marvin Harrison Jr. in this mock after trading out of the fourth pick, but this isn’t a bad consolation prize. Mitchell offers top-shelf athleticism. He’s currently a slight favorite to go over pick 27.5, but this is a very realistic landing spot.
28. Buffalo – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and the Bills are -240 to go wide receiver in this spot. Worthy would give Josh Allen a field stretcher with world class speed.
29. Detroit – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The best first name in this year’s draft class lands with the Lions, who could use an upgrade at the position. Dan Campbell’s squad boasted an elite run defense, but they have some work to do against the pass. The betting odds have Detroit favored to go corner here at +130.
30. Baltimore – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Like many other teams, the Ravens are favored to go offensive line with their first pick. The odds currently have them heavily favored to do so at -190.
31. Las Vegas (trade with San Francisco) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
The Raider make their move at the end of the round, sending this year’s second (pick 44) and a 2025 third to select Penix. A Day 1 selection puts the fifth-year option in play. Penix is trending toward being a late first-round pick, with his odds currently at -180 to go under pick 32.5. However, none of the teams in the back end of the first round have a need at quarterback. If he’s going to go in this range, it’s almost certainly going to be to a team who traded into the spot.
32. Kansas City – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
A wide receiver seems likely in this spot, as the Chiefs are favored to draft the position first at -120. McConkey is a polished route runner who tested well in the predraft process. It wouldn’t be surprising if he slid into the back of the first round. He’s currently -130 to go under pick 34.5.
