Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off an impressive divisional road win in Pittsburgh in Week 3 to move to 2-1 on the 2021 NFL season and now return home to host arguably the worst team in the NFL. Yes, they’re welcoming the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 0-3 on the season and have only held a lead in a game briefly through 12 quarters. The Bengals opened as 7.5-point home underdogs for their matchup with the Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 4 odds
Date/Time: September 30, 8:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Paul Brown Stadium
How to watch: NBC
Opening odds: Bengals -7.5 | O/U 45.5 (BetMGM)
Latest Jaguars-Bengals odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Check them out.
Opening odds – Jaguars vs. Bengals
After opening as 7.5-point favorites for Thursday Night Football, the line remains steady at Bengals -7.5 despite over 80% of early bets on the Bengals. With the Bengals being the home team and coming off such an impressive win in Pittsburgh, this line may climb to -8 by kickoff.
As for the total, it’s hovering around 45.5 with a near 50-50 split for OVER or UNDER. Taking UNDERs in primetime games has been a fool’s errand so far with six of the seven games going OVER the closing total.
Quarterback analysis – Trevor Lawrence vs. Joe Burrow
It’s a battle of the last two No. 1 picks of the NFL Draft, with 2021 selection Trevor Lawrence leading the Jaguars while 2020 selection Joe Burrow rallies the troops for the Bengals. We only have a brief sample size of Lawrence in an NFL uniform, and through three games, he’s finding out quickly that this Jacksonville isn’t Clemson. He’s totaled 667 passing yards, 54.2 completion percentage and a 5-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It’s not completely his fault but some of those mistakes can directly be attributed to Lawrence not anticipating NFL defenses. He’ll have his work cut out for him in Cincinnati.
As for Burrow, while he’s been more competent with 7-4 TD-to-INT ratio, he’s also been sacked 10 times in three games and has only thrown for 640 yards. Here’s the difference though: accuracy. Joe Cool has completed 70.7% of his passes and being accurate reduces the margin for error. It also helps when you have a trio of receivers in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and rookie Ja’Marr Chase, who happens to lead the NFL in touchdown receptions.
Latest Jaguars betting news & info
It’s already becoming a season to forget for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 0-3 and haven’t seemed to show much signs of improvement from the 2020 season. The addition of Lawrence was supposed to stabilize the offense, but the Jags rank 27th in points scored per game and the defense hasn’t fared much better, ranking 28th in points allowed per game. They have an industry term for this type of team: “Dumpster Fire.”
The Jaguars are also 0-3 ATS and even lost in Week 1 as a road favorite over the Houston Texans. Each loss this season has been by 10 or more points. To try and make a betting case for Jacksonville in this spot is a tough sell.
Latest Bengals betting news & info
There were dark days in Cincinnati over the last few seasons, but the newfound optimism in Bengal-Land has been infectious. The Bengals have been a solid ATS bet with Burrow and are now 9-4 against the spread in the 13 games with the LSU product at QB. His rapport with rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase has been electric through three games, and they’ve connected on four touchdown passes in three games. Receiver hasn’t really been an issue for Cincy, but the defense has been low-key impressive in 2021.
In three games, they’re only allowing 18.1 points per game (ranked seventh in NFL) and have only allowed one rushing touchdown. As mentioned, if the Bengals can keep Burrow upright and protect him (10 sacks allowed in 3 games), he’s got a high ceiling.
Jaguars vs. Bengals betting picks – NFL Week 4
Most of the public action is on the Bengals -7.5, and I tend to agree with them. The Jaguars have looked helpless on defense, inept on offense and now have to travel to Cincinnati on a short week with a rookie quarterback that leads the league in interceptions. Recipe for disaster.
Here are our betting picks for Jaguars vs. Bengals in Week 4.
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