Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The easiest way to become a profitable sports bettor is to take advantage of the deposit bonuses offered. No matter how talented you are at picking winners, someone with the added benefit of free money in their account will have a much higher return on their deposit investment than someone who does not have bonus money. These offers are not always going to be around, so take advantage of them while you can. Whether you are someone who is looking to make a big score or just grind out a profit, the key to taking advantage of these offers is to have a plan of attack.
How to grind out a profit using deposit bonuses
A deposit of $750 gets a user $1,500 in funds to wager with after the bonus. Tipico has a required 3x rollover on the money before you can withdraw it, meaning you have to make $4,500 in wagers. A typical spread bet is priced at -110. That means for every $100 you wager, you would profit $91 on a win. Let’s say you decide to bet $100 per game for 45 games to reach that threshold of $4,500 wagered. That would mean every win is plus $91 to your bankroll and every loss was minus $100. At -110, you would need to win 52.3% of your bets to break even. That’s roughly 23.5 bets out of 45. If you do that, you would be left with roughly the same $1,500 you started off with. The 23.5 wins at a plus $91 profit would equal $2,138.50 in winnings. That also means you had 21.5 losses at minus $100 per loss for $2,150 in losses. At the end of the betting streak here you would have $1,487.50 left from your original $1,500 bankroll. Remember, though, that you only actually deposited $750, which means you now made yourself a profit of $737.50 on your original investment due to the deposit bonus. Someone without that deposit bonus who had the same record would have a $12.50 loss on their deposit. This shows you why it is so much easier to be a profitable bettor if you take advantage of the free money.
In fact, you can actually even be a bad sports bettor and still end up with a profit due to the bonus money. For example, let’s say you only win 20 out of your 45 bets. That would be just a 44.4% win percentage. If you have 20 wins at plus $91 each time, that would equal $1,820. It would also mean you lost 25 times at minus $100 each loss for a loss of $2,500. When you combine those two numbers, you get a loss of $680. Remember that you deposited $750 and were gifted a bonus of an additional $750. Losing $680 of that still leaves you with $820, or roughly a 9% return on your money at $820 total. Not bad for someone who did not really have a good run sports betting. These examples show you how even a bad sports bettor can be profitable by taking advantage of deposit bonuses like the one to new users. If you are risk-averse, this is the safe way to protect your money and try to make it grow a little bit.
How to build a bankroll with deposit bonuses to make a big score
If you are someone who likes the idea of risk and wants to try to make a big score, there is a method to follow for that too. You can make your initial deposit of $750 and get that matched, so you now have $1,500 to wager with. Remember, you still have to make $4,500 in wagers in order to be eligible to withdraw your bonus money. Some people have no desire to grind out 45 bets in order to get there just to hopefully make a few hundred dollars. They would rather take a big chance and hopefully turn a $750 investment into something much larger. If this sounds like you, here is a gameplan you can follow.
The first thing you do is find a bet you like at even money (+100). Maybe it is a moneyline on a baseball game or a prop bet in basketball or hockey that has that payout. A payout at even money implies the probability of winning is 50%. So if you bet the full $1,500 on a +100 line, you should expect to win that bet half the time. The half the time you lose, you really only lost your original $750 deposit, because the other $750 was gifted to you. The other half of the time you win, you now turned your $750 investment into $3,000. A $1,500 bet paying out at even money would double that to $3,000. Now we need to make $4,500 in wagers before we can withdraw. So far we made one $1,500 bet, which means we can now take those winnings and make a second $3,000 bet with our account balance. The $1,500 first bet plus the second $3,000 bet would get us to that $4500 wager requirement. You can basically bet on anything you want with that $3,000 bet. If you choose to play it safe, you can even take a -300 moneyline that has a 75% chance to win and walk away with $4,000 total as a -300 bet at $3,000 would pay out an additional $1,000 and has an implied winning percentage of 75%.
To explain it another way, you had a 50% chance of winning your original all-in bet of $1,500 on something priced at even money (+100). Then 75% of the time you won that original bet you would end up with $4,000 if you took a -300 favorite for the total account balance of $3,000 that now satisfies the $4,500 wagering requirement. So let’s do the math on if we tried this 100 times. If we win 50% of the time we make this first wager, we would end up winning 50 times out of the 100 times we try this. If we then win 75% of the times we made that second wager, we would have won 37.5 out of those 50 times we won the first wager. That means we have a 37.5% of turning out $750 deposit into a $4,000 withdrawal for a profit of $3,250, which is 4.3 times our initial investment. To put it in rough sketch terms, you should expect to win over four times your initial investment better than one third of the time.
If you make this wager three times, the odds are that you will win it at least once following this gameplan. Three deposits of $750 would be a $2,250 total outlay. If you win once, you would have that $4,000 total. $4,000 minus $2,250 would be a profit of $1,750 total. Divided by the three times you tried to take advantage of this type of bonus, that would mean you have an expected value of over $580 ($1,750 divided by three) per $750 invested, or an expected return of 77% on your initial investment. If you are someone who can afford to take the risk and possibly lose your $750 without it drastically changing your lifestyle, this is one of the best opportunities you will have to build a big bankroll by just winning two big bets and taking advantage of the offered bonuses.
