How to maximize your Super Bowl bets

Super Bowl betting is unlike any other week of NFL football. The volume of potential wagering options and the volume of dollars wagered on a single game dwarf what we normally see during the season. You have access to a lot of smart people in this guide that will tell you what they are going to bet on.

I decided to take a slightly different approach. Rather than telling you who and what to bet, I’m going to show you how and where to make those bets. If a bet is interesting, the first thing to do is find the best price. In order to do that, I use one of two tools we offer on FTN Bets. 

How to bet on the Super Bowl

If I am looking to bet a spread, a total or a moneyline, I go to our NFL Odds page. On this page, you normally have all NFL games for the week listed. With only one game remaining, you will just see the Super Bowl matchup. You will also see the spread number and the payouts on that game for every book operating in whatever state you choose to look at. This way you can compare the numbers and payouts in order to make that bet where it is going to be easiest to cash (lowest number) and/or where it will pay you the most money if it does cash (best odds). Right now in my home state of New Jersey, the best payout for the Chiefs with the spread is currently offered by PointsBet. They have the game at -3 (-104). Normally we see -110 on spread bets, so this is even juiced down a bit. If you like the Bucs side of this game, BetMGM has it at +3.5 instead of +3 if you want to get the hook. You do give up some juice at -105, but you do get the W if the game ends up being decided by exactly a field goal. The best odds in NJ for +3 are on FanDuel and William Hill, both at even money (+100). 

Where to make prop bets on the Super Bowl

If I am looking for a prop bet, then my next move is to go over to our Prop Shop on FTN Bets. This is a tool I use every day. You enter the name of any player into the search bar at the top and it will spit out every prop bet and the payouts for whatever player you type in. This way you can compare the prop number and the odds to find the best book to place that bet. Let’s use Patrick Mahomes as our example here. 

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards (Book, Yards, Odds)

As you can see here, the number of yards and the payouts can vary book by book. Sometimes the decision is easy. PointsBet is offering the same -115 as William Hill, but one has the number at 325 and the other at 333. If you’re betting the over, you take the lower number. If you wanted to bet the under, go with the higher one assuming the payouts are the same. In our example above, if you wanted to play an over on Mahomes’ passing yards, the FanDuel number and odds are the best combination for the big game as of now. Remember these prices can move throughout the week, so check the Prop Shop for the up-to-date numbers.

The best odds on the most popular bets

I ran a quick search to see which players were trending the most in the last week. It’s a crude way to try and figure out which players might be the ones that people are most interested in betting on. I’m not saying these guys are the best bets, just the ones most likely to have people bet on them. 

1. Tom Brady

The lowest listed number on passing yards for Brady is 295.5 on both DraftKings and PointsBet. DraftKings has the better price at -112. FanDuel is one yard higher at 296.5, but you get a slightly better price at -110. If you like the under, William Hill has the prop number at 302.5 at odds of -115. That would be the best way to place a bet against this number. 

2. Patrick Mahomes

We already discussed Mahomes’ passing yardage total above, so let’s look at another popular bet in touchdown passes. The number is basically 2.5 TD passes at every book I checked. The best payout for the over is on DraftKings at -124. If you want to bet against this number, the best payout offered is +110 on Tipico Sportsbook. 

3. Travis Kelce

Kelce is projected for a big game in the Super Bowl. The lowest prop number on him is 96.5 yards on PointsBet, but it’s juiced up a bit. The best place to play this number is on BetMGM where you get the over at 97.5 yards, but at a standard -110 payout. The best way to bet against Kelce is on Tipico Sportsbook where the yardage total is at 102.5 for a slightly juiced up -114.

4. Tyreek Hill

One of the most volatile numbers I am seeing for the super bowl is Hill’s receptions. The number is steady across the books at 6.5 receptions, but the payouts for the over and under are wildly different. We actually have an arbitrage situation where we are guaranteed to make money developing here. BetMGM is paying -118 on the over and Tipico Sportsbook is offering +120 on the under. If you bet $118 on BetMGM, you would win $100. If you bet $99 on Tipico, you win $118.80. That means if Hill does go over, you win $100 on Bet MGM and lose $99 on Tipico for a $1 profit. If he goes under, you win $118.80 on Tipico and lose the $118 you bet on Bet MGM for a profit of .80 cents. Basically, the volatility in this number sets up a situation where you can place a bet on both sides and get a profit no matter how it turns out. You will not win a lot of money doing this, but it is the rare can’t-lose proposition if you take both sides of it at the best number. 

5. Mike Evans

Evans to score a TD anytime is another interesting bet that many people are discussing this weekend. The numbers are pretty tight here, as every one of these online books has this number sitting at +110 or higher. The best place to play an Evans touchdown is on William Hill, where you can still get this number at +120. 

6. Chris Godwin

The spread for an Evans TD is pretty tight across Sportsbooks, but that is not the case for Godwin. We have a 30-basis-point difference between the lowest number of +120 and the highest odds of +150 for him to score an anytime touchdown. Both DraftKings and BetMGM currently have this at +150, so those are the best places to place a bet on him to score. 

7. Rob Gronkowski

Gronk is not going to get a massive share of receptions or rack up the yardage numbers he has in previous Super Bowl appearances, but he is popular and will be taking some action. The lowest number for Gronk receiving yards is 26.5 on William Hill at -115. I actually prefer to play the over on BetMGM though. It’s one yard more at 27.5, but the payout is at a reduced juice -105 for the over. If you are anti-Gronk here, FanDuel has this at 29.5 yards for a price of -110. That’s the best place to bet against him. 

8. Leonard Fournette

I have no idea how the carries between Fournette and Ronald Jones play out here, but I do like Fournette better for a touchdown if I had to choose one or the other. The spread here is also pretty tight with all the books offering numbers between +110 and the high of +125. The best number is on FanDuel where you can get that +125. 

9. Mecole Hardman

The spread across books on a Hardman touchdown this week is one of the bigger ones we see for a guy who projects for a lot of snaps. The low-end numbers are coming in at +220. You can play this on BetMGM for +275 if you want the best number. Hardman did get into the end zone last week and while the volume is small compared to what Hill and Kelce typically see, Hardman has the ability to take any touch he gets to the house. He returns punts, gets carries on end arounds, and will see some targets so you have quite a few ways he can wind up getting into the end zone. 

10. Darrel Williams

I’m avoiding the Chiefs backfield like the plague here, as we have zero clarity on how it will play out. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Williams both project for about 8-9 carries and the books have numbers on that to play if you are interested. Williams actually has a slightly higher projected rushing yardage number than Edwards-Helaire at every book. The lowest number on Williams is 28.5 on BetMGM at -110. Other sites have both the number of yards and the payouts at worse levels, so this is the place for Williams truthers to get their money down. If you want to bet against Williams rushing yardage number, I like DraftKings as the best spot to do it. They are using 36.5 as their number here, 8 yards higher than the lowest number discussed above. It is slightly juiced up at -118 to the under, but that’s still way better than the -130 PointsBet is offering on this at the same yardage prop.