Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s finally here, Super Bowl 56. The biggest game of the year brings a bittersweet feeling to fans as they get to celebrate the NFL for one final time. Bengals fans get to party like it’s 1988, the last time we saw Cincinnati in the Super Bowl. Many things have changed in those 34 years, as Cincy will go from facing Joe Montana and Jerry Rice of the 49ers to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams. However, the Queen City faithful and bettors should not let the past weigh on them, and I’ll tell you how the Bengals can win Super Bowl 56 and cover the spread.
Super Bowl 56 preview
The 15th meeting between these two franchises will take place on the grandest stage of them all. It will be a quintessential home game for the Los Angeles Rams, even though the Bengals will be the home team, as this year’s Super Bowl will be held at SoFi Stadium. The hometown team is getting a lot of respect from the betting market and opened as 4-point favorites with the total set at 50.5.
Before we dive into how this year’s matchup will play out, let’s take a look at how each team got here.
Rams road to the Super Bowl
In the Wild Card Round, the Los Angeles Rams made a statement, trouncing their division rival Arizona Cardinals, 34-11. The Rams’ defense was on full display and shut down one of the league’s most potent offenses.
That performance did them no favors, as they were rewarded with a trip to Tampa Bay where they took on Tom Brady and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In a game where the Rams took total control from the jump, they needed a last-ditch effort to dispel Brady and the Bucs, who had come back to tie the game after falling behind by 24 points. However, it was the heroics of Stafford and Kupp that set up the game-winning field goal and sent them to the NFC Championship Game.
The Rams faced yet another familiar foe in the conference championship. The San Francisco 49ers had beaten the Rams twice already this season and were in a position to notch a third victory, but it was not meant to be. Instead, Los Angeles rallied from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to ultimately clinch their spot in this year’s Super Bowl.
Bengals road to the Super Bowl
The Cincinnati Bengals were tasked with the upstart Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC Wild Card Round. It was a closely contested game that the Bengals’ defense decided with a last stand to hold off Derek Carr and the Raiders.
However, the challenge only grew, as the Bengals squared off with the top-seeded Tennessee Titans. The Cincinnati defense came up clutch yet again, as they intercepted Ryan Tannehill on three occasions, the last which set up the final blow. In a game where Joe Burrow and rookie Ja’Marr Chase shined, the game was decided when rookie kicker Evan McPherson sent the Bengals on their way to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game.
A conference championship game in Kansas City had become a familiar sight, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs hosted the Bengals. The Chiefs started fast, and it looked like the Bengals’ defense had reverted back to their old ways. However, the defense rallied and held the Chiefs scoreless in the third quarter. Burrow then brought the Bengals back from an 11-point deficit, and his defense was far from finished. The game went to overtime, and fans sighed when the Chiefs won the coin toss, having seen that script just one week before. Then a miraculous interception by Vonn Bell gave the Bengals a chance. Burrow and Joe Mixon combined to march the Bengals down the field, where it was once again left to the foot of McPherson. The rookie nailed the 31-yard attempt, and just like that, the Bengals had their tickets to L.A.
Cincinnati Super Bowl game plan
This Rams defense will perhaps be the most formidable challenge for this explosive, but young Bengals offense. However, for all the star power they possess, there are a few chinks in their armor. Los Angeles is a very zone-heavy defense with a Cover 2-shell on most downs. The way to attack this Rams defense is over the middle. In the Bengals’ case, that would mean involving C.J. Uzomah, if he is healthy, or Tee Higgins, who we saw step up and catch multiple passes over the middle against the Chiefs.
Joe Mixon should also be a factor in the passing game, as Elijah Mitchell of the 49ers had a ton of success catching dump-offs and exploding upfield. The Rams’ weak linebacking corps does not match up well with running backs.
On the defensive side of the ball, the obvious man to contain is Cooper Kupp. It may be in the Bengals’ best interest to play a fair amount of Cover 2-man. That way, Kupp will always be accounted for, and the corners will have safety help over the top. This scheme could also be more effective if tight end Tyler Higbee does not suit up, and the Rams can’t exploit this coverage down the field.
The Cincinnati defense will need to key in on Cam Akers and the run game. While it did not kill them against the Chiefs, Kansas City certainly exposed this Bengals rush defense. They allowed 5.8 yards per carry to the Chiefs, and don’t think McVay won’t take note of that. We have seen him make a concerted effort to get Akers involved since he returned from injury.
Super Bowl 56 prediction
Let me start by saying that the Bengals are certainly a live dog here. I personally grabbed them at +4 and have already seen some spots tick down to +3.5, so I’m not alone. They are the better offense. Burrow deserves to be trusted more than Stafford, and he has a much deeper arsenal of weapons, especially if Higbee is out or hobbled.
The ultimate factor will be the Cincinnati defense, and they have earned some respect with their play this postseason. They bottled up Derrick Henry and shut out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense for most of the AFC Championship.
My prediction is that McVay will shorten this game by having early success running the ball, but the Rams will ultimately struggle to contain Mixon, Higgins and Uzomah over the middle on the defensive end. I am not as worried about the pass rush. I saw some progression from Burrow against the Chiefs, and he was quick to throw the ball away and avoid taking sacks. If it comes down to the final drive, I want Joe Cool to decide this one with the ball in his hands.
Prediction: The Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 56 by the score of 23-17.
