Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The biggest game of Week 4 features a division battle between the Buffalo Bills, coming off two dominating blowout victories, against the Miami Dolphins, who just put up a ridiculous 70 points on Denver last week. You don’t need advanced stats to tell you that this is a great matchup, but they’ll tell you that anyway. Right now, Buffalo is No. 1 in our DVOA ratings while Miami is No. 2. That makes this one of the rare games matching the top two teams in DVOA, or what we like to call the DVOA Bowl.
It’s rare that the top two teams in DVOA going into a certain week face each other in that week. For example, over the past dozen regular seasons, it has only happened four times! It happens more often in the playoffs, because the playoffs are designed to get the best teams up against each other. But even there, it’s rare because you often get the top two teams coming from different conferences… but they don’t both make it to the Super Bowl.
Let’s take a look at the last few DVOA Bowl games in this article. For regular-season games, we’re basing the rankings on how DVOA would have looked at the time. (So, for example, a Week 10 game only considers DVOA in Weeks 1-9 with opponent adjustments at 90%.) For the playoffs, we’re looking at how teams finished in the regular season, not where they stood in DVOA including their playoff performance up to that point.
We also could figure out the DVOA Bowl based on weighted DVOA rather than total DVOA, and get a few different games. Since we’re only at Week 4, right now weighted DVOA and total DVOA are the same thing.
Week 15, 2020: Kansas City (1) at New Orleans (2)
The Saints took a 15-14 lead early in the third quarter but it was mostly Chiefs after that. Patrick Mahomes threw for only 254 yards against an excellent Saints defense but also had three touchdowns with no picks, and three running backs combined for 146 yards on the ground. The Saints came back late and made it 32-29 with a Drew Brees pass to Lil’Jordan Humphrey with 2:06 left. They kicked away with two timeouts left but couldn’t stop the Chiefs from getting two first downs.
Week 11, 2018: Kansas City (1) at Los Angeles Rams (2)
The famous 54-51 game often considered the best regular-season game ever played. It had tons of points but also some strong defensive plays, including three defensive touchdowns, two for the Rams and one for the Chiefs. The Rams took a 54-51 lead on a 40-yard pass from Jared Goff to tight end Gerald Everett with 1:49 left and then a deep pass by Patrick Mahomes with 25 seconds left got picked off to end the game. The Chiefs still finished the year No. 1 in DVOA but it was the Rams who got to go to the Super Bowl.
Divisional Round, 2017: New Orleans (2) at Minnesota (1)
The Minneapolis Miracle! What else is there to say? In the previous version of DVOA, it was New Orleans at No. 1 and Minnesota at No. 2. With the new version, the league’s top defense and that insane fluke year from Case Keenum puts the Vikings at No. 1. Too bad they got clobbered the following week by the No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles.
Week 11, 2017: Los Angeles Rams (1) at Minnesota (2)
The Vikings weren’t No. 1 yet when they hosted the Rams in the middle of the 2017 season, but they made it into the top spot after a comfortable victory. The Rams put up just seven points two weeks after they hung 51 on the New York Giants. Latavius Murray carried the ball 15 times for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Vikings won 24-7.
Super Bowl, 2016: Atlanta (1) vs. New England (2)
28-3, of course.
Week 17, 2015: Seattle (2) at Arizona (1)
The DVOA Disappointment Bowl. Since the Cardinals had already clinched the 2 seed, the didn’t try very hard, even against a division rival. After all, they might have met the Seahawks again in the postseason (they didn’t). The Seahawks were up 30-6 at halftime so the Cardinals sat their starters and everyone just went through the motions for 30 minutes in a 36-6 Seahawks victory. The results of this game meant that Seattle, not Arizona, finished the 2015 regular season at No. 1 in DVOA.
Super Bowl, 2013: Seattle (1) vs. Denver (2)
The Seahawks and Broncos were a lot closer in DVOA than you would expect from a 43-8 Seahawks blowout.
Week 2, 2009: New Orleans (2) at Philadelphia (1)
It’s not much of a DVOA Bowl if it is just Week 2, but both these teams had huge wins to open the season. Philalelphia beat Carolina 38-10 while New Orleans beat Detroit 45-27. The Week 2 game was a good contest for the first half, and went into halftime with the Saints leading 17-13. Then they ran away with it in the second half, scoring the next 17 points and putting a cherry on top when Darren Sharper ran a Kevin Kolb interception back 97 yards for a touchdown with a minute left to make the final score 48-22. The Eagles (4) actually ended up the 2009 season with a higher DVOA than the Saints (6) when the Saints lost their final three games and sat starters in Week 17. But the Saints won the Super Bowl.
Week 10, 2008: New York Giants (1) at Philadelphia (2)
Week 14, 2008: Philadelphia (2) at New York Giants (1)
Divisional Round, 2008: Philadelphia (1) at New York Giants (2)
Yes, three different Eagles-Giants games in 2008 were DVOA Bowl worthy with the two teams at the top of the league all year.
Week 10 featured Brandon Jacobs going 22-126-2, and both the touchdowns came in the second half as the Giants turned a 24-20 deficit into a 36-24 lead. Donovan McNabb hit Kevin Curtis with 5:30 left to make it 36-31 and the Eagles got the ball back with 3:14 left but Brian Westbrook got stuffed by Chase Blackburn on fourth-and-1 at the Eagles 45 with 1:55 left.
The Giants were favored by 7 in Week 14 but the Eagles took a 20-7 lead on a David Akers field goal late in the fourth quarter. Brian Westbrook had 203 combined yards and both a rushing and a receiving touchdown. The Giants marched downfield on all Eli Manning passes but their final touchdown came with just 20 seconds left to make it 20-14 and then the Eagles recovered the onside kick.
The rubber match came in the playoffs and was mostly decided by field goals plus a safety on Donovan McNabb for intentional grounding in the end zone. However, the Eagles also got touchdowns on a McNabb sneak and a 1-yard pass to Brent Celek. They held Eli Manning to just 169 passing yards with two interceptions in a 23-11 win.
Week 9, 2007: New England (1) at Indianapolis (2)
This was probably the most hyped regular-season game ever played, as Peyton Manning and the Colts tried to stop what seemed like the unstoppable perfect season for the Patriots. (It was, in fact, stoppable, just by a different Manning.) Joseph Addai had 112 yards on the ground and a 73-yard receiving touchdown, and the Colts took a 20-10 lead with 9:42 left in the fourth quarter on a Peyton Manning 1-yard run. Then the Patriots went up the field on consecutive drives, with touchdown passes to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk to make it 24-20. Then Jarvis Green forced a Peyton Manning fumble on a sack with 2:34 left and that was ballgame.
Here’s a look at all the DVOA Bowls since 1981 matching the No. 1 and No. 2 teams going into that week. First, games from the regular season:
| YEAR | WEEK | TEAM 1 | W-L | DVOA | TEAM 2 | W-L | DVOA | HOME | SCORE |
| 1981 | 15 | PHI | 9-5 | 24.9% | DAL | 11-3 | 16.4% | DAL | DAL 21-10 |
| 1982 | 4 (12) | NYJ | 2-1 | 44.6% | GB | 3-0 | 35.7% | NYJ | NYJ 15-13 |
| 1982 | 7 (15) | NYJ | 5-1 | 46.9% | MIA | 4-2 | 28.4% | MIA | MIA 20-19 |
| 1985 | 15 | CHI | 13-1 | 53.7% | NYJ | 10-4 | 24.7% | NYJ | CHI 19-6 |
| 1987 | 6 (10) | SF | 4-1 | 34.8% | NO | 3-2 | 28.8% | SF | NO 26-24 |
| 1989 | 7 | CHI | 4-2 | 29.4% | CLE1 | 3-3 | 25.8% | CLE | CLE 27-7 |
| 1991 | 5 | WAS | 4-0 | 71.2% | PHI | 3-1 | 35.6% | WAS | WAS 23-0 |
| 1994 | 7 | DAL | 4-1 | 46.3% | PHI | 4-1 | 32.0% | DAL | DAL 24-13 |
| 1996 | 12 | GB | 8-2 | 42.0% | DAL | 6-4 | 30.9% | DAL | DAL 21-6 |
| 1996 | 15 | GB | 10-3 | 35.7% | DEN | 12-1 | 33.0% | GB | GB 41-6 |
| 1998 | 16 | DEN | 13-1 | 37.9% | MIA | 9-5 | 29.2% | MIA | MIA 31-21 |
| 2000 | 9 | WAS | 6-2 | 32.2% | TEN | 6-1 | 30.8% | WAS | TEN 27-21 |
| 2004 | 9 | PHI | 7-0 | 39.1% | PIT | 6-1 | 31.0% | PIT | PIT 27-3 |
| 2006 | 4 | SD | 2-0 | 66.5% | BAL | 3-0 | 55.8% | BAL | BAL 16-13 |
| 2007 | 9 | NE | 8-0 | 74.5% | IND | 7-0 | 50.3% | IND | NE 24-20 |
| 2008 | 10 | NYG | 7-1 | 37.4% | PHI | 5-3 | 33.8% | PHI | NYG 36-31 |
| 2008 | 14 | NYG | 11-1 | 35.2% | PHI | 6-5-1 | 29.5% | NYG | PHI 20-14 |
| 2009 | 2 | PHI | 1-0 | 98.2% | NO | 1-0 | 78.9% | PHI | NO 48-22 |
| 2015 | 17 | ARI | 13-2 | 36.9% | SEA | 9-6 | 29.5% | ARI | SEA 36-6 |
| 2017 | 11 | LAR | 7-2 | 32.1% | MIN | 7-2 | 31.8% | MIN | MIN 24-7 |
| 2018 | 11 | KC | 9-1 | 47.3% | LAR | 9-1 | 29.6% | LAR | LAR 54-51 |
| 2020 | 15 | KC | 12-1 | 27.9% | NO | 10-3 | 27.3% | NO | KC 32-29 |
And here are the playoff DVOA Bowls, based on the final regular-season rank:
| YEAR | WEEK | TEAM 1 | W-L | DVOA | TEAM 2 | W-L | DVOA | HOME | SCORE |
| 1982 | CCG | NYJ | 6-3 | 27.4% | MIA | 7-2 | 27.2% | MIA | MIA 14-0 |
| 1983 | CCG | WAS | 14-2 | 35.8% | SF | 10-6 | 28.2% | WAS | WAS 24-21 |
| 1984 | SB | SF | 15-1 | 33.8% | MIA | 14-2 | 26.9% | — | SF 38-16 |
| 1988 | SB | SF | 10-6 | 23.7% | CIN | 12-4 | 23.5% | — | SF 20-16 |
| 1989 | DIV | SF | 14-2 | 34.9% | MIN | 10-6 | 21.6% | SF | SF 41-13 |
| 1992 | DIV | DAL | 13-3 | 35.3% | PHI | 11-5 | 31.0% | DAL | DAL 34-10 |
| 1993 | CCG | SF | 10-6 | 27.8% | DAL | 12-4 | 25.0% | DAL | DAL 38-21 |
| 1994 | CCG | DAL | 12-4 | 33.9% | SF | 13-3 | 26.8% | SF | SF 38-28 |
| 1997 | SB | GB | 13-3 | 33.9% | DEN | 12-4 | 32.4% | — | DEN 31-24 |
| 2001 | CCG | STL | 14-2 | 31.2% | PHI | 11-5 | 25.6% | STL | STL 29-24 |
| 2002 | SB | TB | 12-4 | 30.7% | OAK | 11-5 | 27.2% | — | TB 48-21 |
| 2004 | CCG | NE | 14-2 | 35.9% | PIT | 15-1 | 32.2% | PIT | NE 41-27 |
| 2008 | DIV | PHI | 9-6-1 | 28.9% | NYG | 12-4 | 27.3% | NYG | PHI 23-11 |
| 2013 | SB | SEA | 13-3 | 35.8% | DEN | 13-3 | 33.5% | — | SEA 43-8 |
| 2016 | SB | ATL | 11-5 | 31.0% | NE | 14-2 | 25.4% | — | NE 34-28 |
| 2017 | DIV | MIN | 13-3 | 33.0% | NO | 11-5 | 32.1% | MIN | MIN 29-24 |
(Note: If you’re looking for all the DVOA stats going back to 1981, we’re gradually getting that all up on FTN! Come back soon for the soon-to-arrive DVOA archive page featuring 40 years of downloads!)
