Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL season is heating up, and we’re nearly into midseason. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there will be numerous pieces of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers.
If you haven’t already joined our Discord, I certainly recommend doing so, as our experts generally find time throughout the week for open discussions, as well as to answer any questions you may have.
This article will cover a trio of my favorite first look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will additionally be located in our Bet Tracker, but all the analysis surrounding each play can be found below.
Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
(-130, ESPNBet)
While all the hype surrounding the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jaylen Daniels has been deserved, lost in the shuffle is how poor their rush defense has been so far in 2024. While they’re just 21st in DVOA against the run, they have allowed the highest explosive run rate (carry of 10-plus rushing yards), per the FTN StatsHub. The Commanders have additionally allowed the seventh-most yards after contact per carry so far this season, which isn’t all that surprising given they have surrendered the second-most yards per carry (5.1). Henry is averaging 3.3 yards after contact so far in 2024, his best number in the last four years, as well as 6.0 yards per carry, which would be a career high. It’s clear there’s more juice in Henry’s legs and the move behind a vastly better Ravens offensive line, as well as being next to the fiercest dual threat quarterback in the league has done wonders. Our NFL Projections have Henry going for 93.6 rushing yards in Week 6, giving us a pretty substantial edge at this number.
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