Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 5

The NFL season is heating up, as we’re nearly into midseason. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there will be numerous pieces of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers.

If you haven’t already joined our Discord, I certainly recommend doing so, as our experts generally find time throughout the week for open discussions, as well as to answer any questions you may have.

This article will cover a trio of my favorite first look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will additionally be located in our Bet Tracker, but all the analysis surrounding each play can be found below.

C.J. Stroud Over 255.5 Passing Yards

(-120, Caesars)

If you’ve followed me the last year or so, you know this is a no-brainer play for me. The Texans are at home this weekend, meaning they will likely be indoors, on turf, conditions in which have suited C.J. Stroud quite well as a passer in his short NFL career. Looking at our FTN Splits Tool, in three home games with a total of at least 47 (this week’s total at 47.5), Stroud has averaged 304.7 passing yards per game, 43.7 yards more than out of that split. While the Bills have done quite well defensively against the pass, a relatively high total, as well as potential for a negative game script, despite being the home team here, both play in the favor of Stroud. While the Bills have been quite successful against the pass this season, they have faced Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa/Skylar Thompson, Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson Stroud is easily the best quarterback they’ll have seen this season.