Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a long offseason, we have finally reached the beginning of the 2024 NFL season. As you’ll see across FTN Bets, there will be numerous pieces of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord server, I certainly recommend doing so, as our experts generally find time throughout the week for open discussions, as well as to answer any questions you may have.
This article will cover a trio of my favorite first look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will additionally be located in our Bet Tracker, but all the analysis surrounding each play can be found below.
C.J. Stroud Over 272.5 Passing Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
If you followed me in the second half of last season, you’re already aware of my fascination with C.J. Stroud’s home/road splits last season. However, it can go a little beyond home/road and more so indoor/outdoor. Last season, Stroud averaged 302.4 passing yards per game when playing indoors, while he averaged just 219 passing yards per game when playing outdoors. The most intriguing part of that split, at least to me, is that his passing attempts per game was equally 32.5 per game in both splits. Additionally, if you add the Texans as betting favorites to that split, Stroud averaged 323.5 passing yards per game in split, versus just 237.8 passing yards per game out of split. Stroud threw for 384 yards when these two teams first met early last season, though a negative gamescript did net Stroud more passing situations. He did also have both Nico Collins and Tank Dell in that game, whereas when the two teams met Week 17 with a playoff spot on the line, Dell was out with an injury. Stroud will have both his returning weapons, plus a shiny new toy in Stefon Diggs. I expect this Texans passing attack to be even more lethal in 2024 and Stroud should continue to shine indoors as well, where he was clearly more comfortable throughout his rookie season.
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