Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our FTN Fantasy tools and stats provide so much detail and insight on players. The release of our FTN StatsHub provides subscribers with the most powerful NFL insights available. When making preseason draft decisions or facing in-season start/sit dilemmas, having access to our robust database is a huge advantage over your competition. Each week, we will provide a deep dive into one of our core stats here at FTN Fantasy and highlights the strengths or weaknesses of certain players.
DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against
Everybody loves fantasy points allowed stats to each position, but these raw numbers are fatally flawed. We want them to tell us how well (or poorly) a team defends each position, but too often they tell us more about who a team has played, especially in small samples. If a team plays Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in the first three weeks of a season, of course, it’ll allow a lot of points to TEs!
DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against adjusts for the opponent. It then goes a step further, using DVOA and DYAR data to maximize the predictive value of the metric. For example, +30% means the defense is expected to allow 30% more fantasy points to the position than average, and -30% means the defense is expected to allow 30% fewer fantasy points to the position than average.
Some interesting observation from the table above:
- QB DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against: The top five teams that allowed the most QB adjusted fantasy points were Washington (29%), Philadelphia (23%), Detroit (19%), LA Chargers (16%) and Atlanta (14%). Will that continue in 2024? There are three teams that made significant coaching changes to help address this deficiency. Washington has a new defensive scheme, led by head coach Dan Quinn. Philadelphia also made changes, hiring longtime defensive guru Vic Fangio. The Chargers may have the biggest change, with new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter coming over from Michigan with Jim Harbaugh.
- RB DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against: Arizona was tied with Carolina for the worst run defense per DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against. They allowed a whopping 20.6 adjusted FPPG. The Cardinals haven’t made significant defensive improvements, which makes all Arizona games a very fantasy-friendly environment.
- WR1 DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against: Defending opposing WR1s will be a critical part of team success in the 2024 NFL season. Last year, the Chiefs (-30%), Bills (-27%) and Ravens (-17%) all ranked inside the top seven teams and made the playoffs. Baltimore and Kansas City met in the AFC Championship game.
- WR2 DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against: There are always some interesting differences between WR1 and WR2 defense. The Dolphins ranked second worst in defending WR1s but seventh best in defending WR2s. The rationale? Xavien Howard was an elite cornerback that teams schemed away from when Jalen Ramsey was hurt early in the season Per FTN Data, Miami allowed the eighth-most first-read yards and was 23rd in yards allowed in non-first reads. Opposing teams adjusted against Howard and the Miami pass defense.
- TE DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against: The Browns defense was elite across the board, especially against opposing tight ends, allowing 25% fewer adjusted fantasy points than average. I was surprised to see Carolina (-23%), Tennessee (-22%) and New England (-21%) all residing inside the top five teams. The most generous? Denver (+44%), LA Rams (+24%) and Tampa Bay (+20%).
