Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
From Adam Pfeifer’s Seattle Seahawks entry in the Coaching and Coordinator series on FTNFantasy:
“Ironically enough, the Seahawks completely changed their offensive philosophy this past season, despite the greatest player in the history of their franchise being traded. Shane Waldron and Carroll transformed Seattle’s predictable, run-first (and second) offense into a more pass-happy, aggressive unit. Seattle’s neutral-script passing rate climbed to just over 59% this past season, the 10th-highest rate in football, but what really changed was the approach on early downs. During Wilson’s final season, Seattle posted an early down pass rate of 48.3%, which ranked 24th in the league. However, with Wilson gone and Geno Smith under center, that early down pass rate climbed all the way up to 59.2%, good for the fifth-highest rate in all of football. Smith averaged right around 34 pass attempts per game last season, while Seattle finished ninth in the league in pass rate over expected. The Seahawks were also 13th in passing rate when leading by eight or more points last season (41%), which isn’t something you’d expect from this offense after what we’ve been accustomed to. This isn’t the same old Seattle Seahawks offense. They have evolved.”
MagicSportsGuy’s Bets
DK Metcalf Over 900.5 Receiving Yards
(-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is 950.5 at Caesars. FTN Data has DK Metcalf projected at 1,000 receiving yards after 1,048 last season.
DK Metcalf Over 6.5 TDs
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is a reactionary line after he posted just 7 last season. He had 22 combined in 2020 and 2021, and I think this is his breakout year.
