Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: The questions surrounding a certain star veteran receiver in Cincinnati.
Top of his class. A can’t-miss prospect. Generational talent. Best wide receiver prospect since Randy Moss. Elite.
Thumbing through the annals from the 2011 NFL Draft the above descriptions were commonly applied to A.J. Green on scouting reports penned by multiple respected talent evaluators.
Blessed with length, long-range speed, contested catch strength, high-point hops and sure hands, he warranted the hype. Spectacular plays he made at Georgia left a lasting impression whether stamped on celluloid or cerebral cortexes. It’s why the Cincinnati Bengals, at No. 4 overall, selected him over another sensational prospect, Alabama’s Julio Jones.
Flash forward to the Year of Our Ongoing Pestilence 2020 and the receiving duo has diverted, traveling down different paths.
Jones, with seven Pro Bowl appearances to his name, remains one of the game’s true rarified producers, a wideout fantasy investors continue to drool over as a consensus top-20 overall pick.
Green, meanwhile, has missed 13 games over the past three seasons, eroded trust and largely underwhelmed. On the wrong side of 30, he’s viewed with extreme trepidation for all drafters who briefly ponder the same tough-to-answer question:
Can Green really be a fantasy phoenix in 2020?
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On Monday’s “Fade The Noise” SiriusXM radio show, hosted by some overzealous blabbermouth, Bengals beat writer Tyler Dragon from the Cincinnati Enquirer noted the receiver entered training camp “bulked up and motivated to land a long-term deal.” Dragon added Green, “wants to break Chad Ochocinco’s franchise records. Optimism is high he’ll be the All-Pro of old.”
Seducing.
The last time onlookers watched Green over a noteworthy sample size, Weeks 1-8 in 2018, he resembled the WR1 fantasy gamers had grown accustomed to seeing. During that stretch, he accumulated a 76-45-687-6 line. He also chipped in a 13.8-yard average depth of target, netted 15.3 yards per catch and was WR7 in fantasy points per snap (0.34). And all of that was accomplished sporting a horrendous 59.2% catch percentage. Thanks, Andy Dalton.
Positivity springs from a change at quarterback. Joe Burrow presents a new hope. The ballyhooed rookie passer has a chance to be the Skywalker of this comeback story.
Relentless, fearless, whip smart and unrattled against intense pressure, Burrow, wielding a metaphorical light saber, displayed an uncanny knack for slicing through defenses whether five or 50 yards out. Last year for the national champion LSU Tigers he notched a ridiculous 122.9 passer rating or better on every throw. He ranked QB2 in adjusted completion percentage and QB1 in total deep pass yards. His touch and ability to rapidly process coverages are significant attributes. Well ahead of the curve in his mental absorption of the Bengals playbook, he, assuming he implements his learnings without a hitch physically, is exactly what the doctor ordered for Green. Cincinnati’s offensive line must improve, but if all cylinders fire, the wideout could again rise to 80-1,100-8 prominence.
With Green hungry to prove skeptics wrong, his steadfast supporters are “Absolutely Justified” to target him in drafts. At his ultra affordable WR29 (67.1 ADP) price point, he might add another illustration, “fantasy football steal of the season.”
