Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL head coaching carousel spins every offseason, with new faces in new places. These hires can impact the players we love and the offenses we target in fantasy football drafts. Before diving into early best ball drafts or dynasty startups, let’s take a peek at some winners and losers from the fallout of head coaching changes around the league.
NFL Head Coaching Carousel – Winners
New York Giants Offense
Brian Daboll oversaw a Buffalo offense that ranked 10th in yards per play and fifth in total yards last year. On the flip side, the Giants were 31st in both of these categories, as they had the dubious duo of Joe Judge and Jason Garrett mucking things up. No, the Giants do not have a franchise changer under center like Josh Allen, but Daniel Jones has shown promise in spurts. The skill position players might not be on the same level as Stefon Diggs and company, but Kenny Golladay isn’t washed and Kadarius Toney played extremely well when he was healthy. Not only will New York get an upgrade schematically, but their pace and passing rates should also rise with the addition of Daboll.
Dak Prescott & the Cowboys Offense
Kellen Moore entertained coaching interviews, but ultimately he’ll be returning to the friendly confines of Dallas for the 2022 season to direct one of the top offenses in the NFL. Last year, Dallas finished first in total yards and points scored while also ranking third in yards per play. Moore showed the willingness to vary his game plan weekly based on the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses, which, as crazy as it is to say, is not a customary practice for all 32 offensive coordinators. While the Cowboys will have a bunch of decisions to make this offseason with free agents and the draft regarding the offense, one they won’t have to make is who is at the controls in the booth.
Trevor Lawrence
Two words: Urban Meyer. Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season was a lost cause under the tutelage of an utter buffoon that had zero clue what he was doing. Regardless of what you think about Doug Pederson, he’s not even moronic enough to claim that Lawrence is in “competition” to start Week 1 or any other similar tomfoolery. To Pederson’s credit, he helped facilitate an offense that was top-13 in passing yards and passing touchdowns in three of his five seasons in Philadelphia. Lawrence probably won’t enjoy the sophomore season of the likes of Joe Burrow, but he can at least prove that the hope that Jacksonville instilled in making him their top selection last year wasn’t for nothing.
NFL Head Coaching Carousel – Losers
Davis Mills
Davis Mills surpassed any expectations for his rookie season with flying colors. Among quarterbacks with 200 or more passing attempts, he was 14th in adjusted completion rate and fourth in deep ball completion rate. With Tim Kelly out as offensive coordinator and Pep Hamilton in along with turnover at the head coaching spot, Mills standing as the future of this organization at the quarterback position with Deshaun Watson moving on, is on shaky ground. The organization has already stated they will look to upgrade the quarterback position now. Whether that’s in the draft or via trade is debatable. The big takeaway is that Mills could easily be replaced despite his excellent rookie season.
New Orleans Saints Offense
Losing Sean Payton’s masterstroke offensive wisdom is going to hurt. Even if New Orleans was an offensive juggernaut in 2021, losing one of the best playcallers in the NFL would still hurt. Add in uncertainty at the quarterback position and every skill spot outside of running back (assuming Alvin Kamara’s off-the-field troubles are cleared up), and you have a recipe for possible letdown across the board. As good as Pete Carmichael might be at his job, the team will be hard-pressed not to feel this loss on numerous levels.
Minnesota Vikings Offense
The Vikings shocked me last season, ranking fifth in neutral-script pace and 12th in passing rate in close games. As quickly as those elements appeared, they could vanish. Kevin O’Connell’s hiring doesn’t equal a coffin nail for this offense’s play volume, but it does throw it into question as a possible downgrade. O’Connell is a black box from an offensive philosophy standpoint. Sean McVay is the head honcho in Los Angeles. We’ve learned the hard way not to automatically transfer playcalling genius by association with the Matt Nagy experiment in Chicago.
