Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(FTN Fantasy is reacting to all the big fantasy news of the offseason! Follow along in our transaction tracker.)
(Update: The Packers released Aaron Jones after this deal. Jacobs now has elite fantasy upside. We’ll break down Jones’ fantasy status once he finds a new team.
Things are starting to heat up in NFL free agency. The Green Bay Packers made a big move Monday, agreeing to terms with RB Josh Jacobs. Jacobs comes to the Packers after spending his first five NFL seasons with the Raiders. He’ll join Aaron Jones in the Green Bay backfield, with AJ Dillon expected to head elsewhere in free agency.
On the surface, this looks like a stunner, but closer examination is necessary. Jones played very well for the Packers down the stretch, but he’s no spring chicken. He’s entering his eighth professional season and will turn 30 in December. Jacobs is significantly younger at just 26 years old.
For now, Jacobs and Jones figure to form a one-two punch in the Green Bay backfield, similar to what we’ve seen out of Jones and Dillon over the past four seasons. That timeshare approach has not been kind for fantasy football purposes, as both backs had a major cap on their volume. Those hoping for Jacobs to land in a bell cow situation may be disappointed by this landing spot.
Of course, there is an elephant in the room, as Jones currently accounts for $17.6 million against the cap. Simply put, that’s way too much to be on the hook for a 30-year-old running back. The Packers have met with Jones’ agent to discuss a reworked deal, but that has yet to materialize. If the two sides don’t come to an agreement, Jones will likely be released. Should that happen, Jacobs would almost certainly serve as the feature back.
A big workload in an exciting Green Bay offense would have Jacobs right back in the RB1 conversation. However, if Jones stays in town, it’s hard to envision a scenario where either player produces anything more than back-end RB2 numbers.
Zamir White’s dynasty managers certainly like this news. With Jacobs out of the way, White sits as the de facto lead back. White served in that role with Jacobs banged up down the stretch. Over his final four games of the regular season, White racked up 457 scrimmage yards and a score on 93 touches. He was RB9 over that span. Expecting a similar output in 2024 is a bit ambitious, but White will very much be in the RB2 conversation if the Raiders don’t bring anyone else into their running back room.
