FTN NFL Model Best Bet: Week 6
FTN Staff
I hope everyone’s well-rested after the longest day in NFL history in Week 5, going nearly 16 hours from the early-morning London kickoff to the end of the storm-delayed night game. Your day was likely even longer if you had a rough week in fantasy, so let’s see if we can’t help dig you out of it with some deep waiver wire grabs. Last week, we plucked out Tucker Kraft (TE1) and Wan’Dale Robinson (WR19) from the waiver wire muck, so let’s see if we can’t find some more hidden gems as we prepare for Week 6.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 6, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 7. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (44%/58%)
Reason: Positive Regression, Playcalling Change
Time Frame: Rest of Season
We’re pushing the limits of waiver wire picks by highlighting Rodgers, but he’s seen his rostership drop significantly over the past couple weeks. There’s a real chance he’s sitting in your league right now after his three-interception performance against Minnesota, and if so, he shouldn’t be for long. Rodgers will likely not be a great play this week, as he’s facing a tough Bills defense and is nursing an ankle injury, but his long-term outlook is brighter. Part of the Jets’ shuffle includes a likely change of playcallers, and anything to get out of the nightmare that is Nathaniel Hackett has to be a plus. In addition, Rodgers has been victimized by his receivers somewhat – nine drops through five weeks, for a league-worst 7.0% drop rate. We expect that to improve over time, both through random chance and through improved chemistry between Rodgers and his playmakers, as well as the lurking possibility of a Davante Adams trade percolating. If he’s become available in your league, and you have a roster spot you’re not using, stashing Rodgers makes all the sense in the world.
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