Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a couple weeks of chaos, Week 4 in the NFL played out a little closer to expected, as teams and depth charts really begin to solidify. That doesn’t mean we still can’t find promising outliers on the fantasy football waiver wire, mind you. Last week, we were able to identify Taysom Hill (TE1), Geno Smith (QB8) and Xavier Legette (WR13) as sneaky, freely-available pickups just before they had great weeks. And at least one of those players is probably still available in your league right now, as we get set for Week 5.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 5, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 6. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (23%/27%)
Reason: Soft Schedule, Positive Regression
Time Frame: Weeks 5-7
The era of Watson being a good quarterback is behind us, but there’s still some juice to be squeezed out of him for fantasy purposes. His numbers last week (176 yards, a touchdown and an interception) don’t leap off the page at you, but that’s after an 82-yard touchdown to Amari Cooper got called back by penalty, and after Cooper decided to play volleyball with a pass, bouncing it into the air and into the hands of a Raiders defender. With a little better luck, Watson is a top 10 QB in fantasy last week. Cleveland’s also getting Nick Chubb back soon, which will relieve some pressure from the Cleveland passing game and have a soft schedule coming up. Washington and Philadelphia are both in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, while Cincinnati allows the 12th-most DVOA-adjusted fantasy points, after factoring in for opposing teams’ quality. In short, Watson’s a QB2 with some QB1 upside against defenses that haven’t stopped much of anyone this season, making him a solid pick if you’ve got some early bye weeks to get through.
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