Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The Week 1 edition of the Waiver Wire Watchlist picked some low-hanging fruit in J.K. Dobbins and Isaiah Likely. Those will be fewer and farther between now that the season has started and everyone has had a chance to see teams play. But that play opens other doors for potential value.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 2, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 3. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50 percent ownership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
19%/14%
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 2-4
The plan may be to start Justin Fields for another week or two while presumed top quarterback Russell Wilson recovers from his calf injury. But Fields couldn’t have timed his starts any better for fantasy. The Steelers play the Broncos, Chargers and Colts over the next three weeks. All three have been upper third boosters of passing fantasy points at an estimated 0.6, 2.0, and 0.8 extra points per game since the start of last season. And the Broncos and Colts are both bottom five in defensive DVOA after Week 1. At worst, Fields is a compelling streamer this weekend. But if the former Bear can handle a few more second-class opponents the next few weeks, he might hold his starting job for the rest of the season and return to his former top-10 fantasy quarterback standard.
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