Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The traditional waiver wire is a crapshoot. Even Bill from HR can beat you to Jerome Ford and Isaiah Likely if he has a higher waiver claim or FAAB budget and saw that Nick Chubb and Mark Andrews were hurt as he flipped past the sports section to find his horoscope. If you want to guarantee you’ll grab your preferred potential league-winner, you need to be a week early.
And the Waiver Wire Watchlist can help. Each week this season, I will identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And I will aim to identify them before Bill has ever heard their names.
Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo, and players must be less than 50% rostered in one of those platforms to be considered.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30%/33%
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 1-2
Mayfield enjoyed a career passing season in his first year in Tampa in 2023 and will likely eventually see regression with his outlier efficiency on third downs. But that regression may not come in Weeks 1 and 2 when the veteran faces the Commanders and Lions. Both teams were top four boosters of passing fantasy points at an estimated 6.0 and 2.1 extra points per game last season. The Commanders were 32nd in pass defense DVOA — FTN’s comprehensive and opponent-adjusted measure of defensive efficiency. And the Lions were 16th in pass defense but 1st in run defense, a skew that spurred their opponents to pass more than normal.
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